老陈的交易日记

The biggest fairness in the cryptocurrency world lies in: it will make everyone who does not respect market rules pay for their lessons with real money. The description of "hold your hands" is essentially "first make yourself invincible, and then wait for the enemy to be vulnerable" from The Art of War — survive, and wait for the market to make mistakes before taking action. Let's encourage each other.

Why do people "earn by following but end up losing money"?

1. Survivorship bias: People only see a few accurate judgments by "Old Chen" but ignore the periods when he may have also lost money; followers often enter the market at the wrong time.

2. Cognitive gap: Experts earn "discipline money," while ordinary people earn "luck money." The same operation can yield vastly different results due to professional players having stop-loss/profit-taking strategies, whereas retail investors rely on gut feelings.

3. The underlying logic of holding your hands
Transaction costs eat into profits: The fees, slippage, and funding rates from frequent trading can be more deadly than losses in a bear market.

4. Candlestick illusion: The market is noise 90% of the time, with less than 10% of trends truly worth taking action on. Most people want to "create opportunities" in volatile markets.

5. Psychological traps: Wanting to quickly recover losses (revenge trading) after a loss, or fearing profit givebacks (premature profit-taking) during gains, are weaknesses of human nature.

6. Key strategies for survival
Bullet management: Always keep at least 50% of your capital as a reserve to avoid being forced to cut losses at the bottom.

7. Asymmetrical risk: Betting 10 times your capital with 1% is possible, but betting 20% with 50% of your capital is suicide.

8. Mechanical trading: Establish strict rules {e.g., stop trading for 24 hours if losses exceed 5% in a single day}

9. A wake-up call for losers • Acknowledge your ordinariness: The market specializes in dealing with all forms of disobedience; three consecutive months of losses mean the market is telling you "the method is wrong."

10. Simulation paradox: Only move to real money after consistently earning on a demo account for six months, but 99% of people can’t stick to it for two weeks.

11. Leaving is also wisdom: If you continue to lose money, temporarily stepping away may be the best "trading strategy." When a bull market arrives, those who watch from the sidelines often earn more than those who trade chaotically.

12. Anti-human nature thinking training • When you feel you "must seize this market wave," ask yourself: Can I endure a 20% reverse fluctuation?

13. When continuously profitable, proactively withdraw 50% of the profits to avoid becoming a slave to the market's short-term fluctuations.

#美国加征关税

$BTC The waterfall happened, what's going on, the market has collapsed

The air force is happy

#加密市场回调 #BNB创新高

Congratulations to the communication family for winning $STBL , three times the big meat, what to eat

Mastering 20 small points, the Mo family army is powerful,

Bamboo leaves think of the Mo family army, eating meat

The encrypted market corrected $BNB
#BNB创新高 #加密市场回调

Early morning crit, $ETH $BTC plummeting

Is there still a counterfeit season? Is there still beef?

Old Chen shouted about the big pancake short position, is anyone still holding it?

$BNB reached a new high

#BNB创新高 #美联储重启降息步伐

The internal forever god $DAM 10x ate twice as much, cow🐮

Still, the big family is powerful. How to say, the weekend is also a pleasant time to eat fish.

Old Chen publicly $HOLO got 4 small points, started to drop, forgot to remind to take profits, now near the entry price continue to hold and see.

The big family has eaten so much meat,
$BNB hit a new high, awesome, continue to fight tomorrow.
#BNB创新高 #SOL上涨潜力

The internal orders are still impressive, the $OPEN snacks at 8 points in the morning

Eat meat in a timely manner, and the bamboo leaf will grant you the password to wealth

$BNB $SOL

#BNB创新高 #SOL上涨潜力

$HOLO Looking to break through,

Current price around 0.38 for a light long position,

Stop loss around 0.349

Target 0.46

$BNB $SOL
#BNB创新高 #SOL上涨潜力

Good morning, brothers

$BTC How's the short position doing, over a thousand dollars in floating profit

The market is a bit disappointing, you can set a breakeven pattern

#BNB创新高 #SOL上涨潜力

Is $BTC coming to Bo?

The current price of btc is around 116928 to short

Stop loss at 118000u

Target 114000
Is the altcoin season coming?
$BNB $SOL
#BNB突破1000 #山寨季将至？

$ZKC Make a breakthrough and accelerate the rise

Current price open a small long position near 0.793, stop loss at 0.7260

Target 0.94

#BNB挑战1000大关 #美联储重启降息步伐

Good morning, old friends

The interest rate has been cut, and the fluctuations aren't too big, Lao Chen is here

$SOMI current price around 1.277, lightly open long position, stop loss at 1.1750

Target first looking at 1.50, attack fiercely

$BNB so tough

#BNB挑战1000大关 #美联储重启降息步伐

Two days before the interest rate cut announcement, which side are you on? $BTC $ETH

At 2 AM (Beijing time) on September 18 this year, according to FedWatch predictions, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is as high as 95.8%.

Looking back at last year's FOMC meeting, which took place at 2 AM (Beijing time) on September 19, it was announced that interest rates would be cut by 50 basis points. Five days before the rate cut, the market began to fluctuate, experiencing three consecutive days of decline:
On September 14, Bitcoin fell by 0.83%
On September 15, Bitcoin fell by 1.44%
On September 16, Bitcoin fell by 1.55%

Two days before the rate cut, the market warmed up. By 2 AM on September 19, after the announcement of the rate cut, Bitcoin and altcoins initially dipped, followed by a steady rise in Bitcoin, which surged from $5,800 to $10,700. This upward momentum continued until December 8. It wasn't until December 9 when Trump announced tariff increases that the market began to decline.

This year's key question is whether to cut by 25bp or 50bp:
If only 25bp is cut, it may initially spike upwards before accelerating downwards;
If 50bp is cut, it may initially dip downwards before accelerating upwards, potentially breaking previous highs

#山寨季将至？ #美联储降息预期升温

The market is not very friendly, and in the past two days, Old Chen has not made any arrangements.

What did the big family eat today?

$MYX $MUBARAK $ARIA everyone got to eat meat.

And it's all big meat, the highest $Myx got 30 points,

If you want the wealth password, come get it from Zhuye.

Auntie looks to rebound,

#BNB创新高 #美联储降息预期升温

$HOLO still the new currency, it’s really impressive to eat meat and eat meat

Be careful to bag it in batches

$ETH back to 4700 US dollars, is there still beef?
#ETH重回4700美元

$BAS So regrettable, it's a bit late to say this, I could have eaten more than 10 points

For those who want to hold on to profits, you can set a breakeven point and just not lose, haha

Ambushing a new coin $HOLO , currently entering around the price of 0.439, stop loss around 0.4026, target around 0.5

#加密市场反弹 #美联储降息预期升温

$BAS Almost reached the target position in the morning, now just a quick snack,

Shouldn't be sleeping,

#BNB创新高 #ETH重回4700美元

$YGG has reached a new high again, the old Chen family laid out the spot yesterday and is approaching the target

Now there is a 40-point increase, a 40-point increase in two days, it's amazing

The Mo family army is powerful, with full military achievements

The crypto market is rebounding, making profits
#ETH重回4700美元 #加密市场反弹

Old Chen's family today's achievements,

$FHE entered and gained five benefits,一直在吃肉哦

#BNB创新高 #ETH重回4700美元

$ZRC all good news when starting, eat meat, invincible, battle results can be checked

#BNB创新高 #ETH重回4700美元