Brothers, let me be blunt: the current market is like a pot of water, boiling and bubbling. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates next week, this pot may overflow! But the question arises: will it boil over immediately, or will it be suppressed before it explodes? This is the biggest suspense we will face next!
Review of last night's market:
The cryptocurrency market is facing another bloody cleansing, with over 150,000 investors liquidated in 24 hours, blood flowing like a river.
As expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut heat up, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a new round of explosive growth. In just the past 24 hours, Ethereum surged nearly 6%, Bitcoin approached $116,000, and Dogecoin skyrocketed over 9%.
This weekend, the cryptocurrency market will face unprecedented trading opportunities and risks. As a veteran in the cryptocurrency space, I understand that such a market is both an opportunity for wealth redistribution and a trap for the greedy.
Bloody liquidation night
Coinglass data shows that in the last 24 hours, the total liquidation in the cryptocurrency market reached $411 million, affecting nearly 155,200 people.
Among them, the liquidation of short positions reached $324 million, and the liquidation of long positions reached $86.64 million. The largest single liquidation occurred in Binance-BTCUSDT, valued at $5.019 million.
Behind this bloody massacre is the market's violent reaction to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations. Those highly leveraged short sellers betting against the market have been completely crushed.
Countdown to the Federal Reserve's rate cut
The federal fund futures market shows a 93% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% next week, with a 7% probability of a 50 basis point cut.
The market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will announce the first round of rate cuts at next week's meeting, with a magnitude of 25 basis points, marking the beginning of a series of rate cuts. Traders are currently betting that the Federal Reserve will continue to implement rate cuts at the meetings in October and December.
Deutsche Bank has raised its expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of 2025 to three times. Morgan Stanley economists even expect that the Federal Reserve will take rate-cut actions in four consecutive meetings until January next year.
Altcoin carnival season
Recently, some smaller cryptocurrencies in the cryptocurrency market have surged sharply. In 7 days, Dogecoin rose over 30%, Solana rose over 20%, Ethereum and XRP rose over 10%, while Bitcoin's increase was only 4% during the same period.
Solana has suddenly surged, rising over 20% in 7 days, with a total market value surpassing BNB, becoming the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz stated that the cryptocurrency market is entering what he calls the 'Solana season'.
Novogratz emphasized Forward Industries (FORD)'s recent completion of $1.65 billion in financing, led by Galaxy Digital, Jump Crypto, and Multicoin Capital, aimed at building the world's largest Solana asset reserve strategy.
Institutions are entering the market in large numbers.
The world's largest stablecoin issuer Tether has launched a new token for U.S. enterprises and institutions. This new token, named 'USAT', will be regulated according to the U.S. (GENIUS Act).
Meanwhile, Tether has appointed Bo Hines, the former head of the White House cryptocurrency advisory team, as CEO of U.S. operations. A series of recent initiatives highlight Tether's dual commitment to 'cooperate with regulators' and 'enter the U.S. market'.
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have seen over $1 billion in new capital inflows. On September 12, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows for the fifth consecutive day, with an inflow amount of $642 million.
Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net inflows for the fourth consecutive day, with an inflow amount of $406 million. As investors' interest in the ETF market continues to grow, Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to benefit from institutional investor demand.
Market sentiment: restless before the realization of good news
Data from the past two days - CPI, PPI, initial jobless claims - are paving the way for the Federal Reserve, and a 25 basis point rate cut in September is almost a done deal! Market participants have already caught the scent, and sentiment is heating up, but it is also mixed with hesitation over 'concerns about good news being realized.' Today's market is very typical: the index is fluctuating upwards, funds are hesitant to enter all at once, but the anomalies in altcoins indicate that funds are already looking for 'early positioning' targets.
In a nutshell: emotions are restless, funds are cautious, and the main players might initiate a washout at any time.
Today's & weekend operational logic
BTC and ETH: Bitcoin and Ethereum are the ballast stones, and the main players are likely to clear leveraged positions with fluctuations this weekend, pulling the range. Recommendation: follow with light positions, don't go all in.
Altcoins: This is the focus of the weekend. Once the liquidity inflection point is confirmed, high-beta altcoins will be the first choice for capital testing. In terms of operation, you can 'lay down ambush troops', don't chase highs, wait for low-level anomalies to enter with small positions.
Risk point: this weekend it is easy to get harvested by the main players using false breakouts and sharp drops, so patience is required in operations, don't be led by emotions. Remember: the real big market movement will be activated by the Federal Reserve's dot plot next week, it's the 'nuclear button.'
Old Zhu's opinion:
My view is clear: this is the final test before the bull market! Don't think about making quick money over the weekend; the most important thing is to hold your bullets and wait for the Federal Reserve to officially open the floodgates next week, and the market's true 'volcano' will erupt.
Brothers, remember my words: interest rate cuts are the fuse, the dot plot is the nuclear explosion point! Whoever can endure the fluctuations of these two days will sit in the first class of the next wave of market movements!
Want to know the key points for entering the market? Pay attention to @加密老朱 , I will break down the market conditions as soon as possible, allowing you to maintain your rhythm in the storm and grab your share! #加密市场反弹
