Bitcoin (BTC) has recently fallen into a fierce competitive range on the daily chart, a situation closely related to multiple factors. The latest signals from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting regarding interest rate hikes have tightened market liquidity expectations, indirectly affecting the trading sentiment of risk assets like Bitcoin; at the same time, news that a major exchange in the cryptocurrency industry is under investigation by regulators for compliance issues has also made investors more cautious in their operations. There are significant differences in how both bulls and bears interpret these events, leading to repeated fluctuations in price within the range, and the market's judgment on the next major trend has become stuck.
After a brief attempt to hold the previous high, the price movement is clearly under pressure. From the momentum indicators, the short-term 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently approaching the current trading level. The 9-day EMA, as an important indicator reflecting short-term price trends, being close to the current price indicates that market momentum has stalled in the short term and is slightly bearish. This means that, in the short term, selling pressure is relatively dominant, but not significantly so. Meanwhile, the long-term 20-day EMA remains above the current price, further reinforcing the upper resistance limit. Generally speaking, the 20-day EMA is viewed as a reference for the medium-term trend, and its position above the current price suggests that unless there is a significant spike in market trading volume to provide sufficient momentum for price increases, Bitcoin's upward breakout may face strong resistance.
The MACD histogram shows a negative divergence, highlighting that the market's bullish momentum is gradually weakening. However, from the latest trends, there are signs of stabilization in the market, which may be due to some investors starting to tentatively buy at the current price level. The RSI indicator is currently hovering around the 40s, which is typically used to determine if an asset is overbought or oversold. An RSI in the 40s indicates that buyers have not yet regained control of the market, but the asset has not entered the oversold territory. This situation means that there is both room for a rebound and the possibility of further declines, placing the forces of bulls and bears in a delicate balance for now.
Key levels to watch
Regarding resistance levels, $111,696 is a clear resistance level, which has previously been a position that was challenged multiple times without effective breakout, creating a certain psychological resistance in the market. Major resistance levels are located around $119,841 and $119,954, which are close to the significant psychological barrier of $120,000, and are also areas of relatively dense previous trading, accumulating many trapped positions, thus becoming strong resistance levels. Unless buyers can organize an effective offensive to force Bitcoin to close above these areas, it may be difficult for Bitcoin to find sustainable upward momentum.
On the downside, support levels are at $108,246, $105,681, and $103,985. $108,246 has been a level that has received support multiple times during recent price corrections, and the market has formed a certain buying consensus here; $105,681 and $103,985 are previous densely traded areas that have provided support several times in historical trading. If the market's selling pressure accelerates, these areas may provide some buffer for the price.
Bitcoin Order Book Dynamics
The Bitcoin order book shows an interesting stalemate between buyers and sellers at the current price level. An important buy wall is located at $110,600, with buy orders around $516,000. The existence of this buy wall indicates that many investors are willing to buy at this price level, which may provide some support for the price. Once this support is lost, the price could see a slight decline, approximately 0.10%, and there would be smaller buy orders below, with relatively weak support.
On the other hand, the sell walls at $110,712 (approximately $968,300) and $110,842 (approximately $677,000) represent direct resistance. These sell walls indicate that there are a large number of sell orders at this price level, which will suppress price upward movement. If the price can break through these sell walls, it may rapidly push the price up, but unless there is broader upward momentum, such as a significant influx of off-market funds or a clear improvement in market sentiment, the price increase is expected to be moderate.
BTC Trading Outlook
From a technical perspective, various indicators are slightly bearish, but do not rule out the possibility of a rebound. For bullish traders, it may be advisable to wait for a confirmed breakout above $111,696 before entering, as only a valid breakout of this resistance level can indicate that bullish strength truly prevails. If momentum after the breakout can strengthen, the target price could look towards the higher area around $119,800. However, market trading volume should be considered at the time of entry; if the trading volume fails to increase in tandem, the validity of the breakout would be questionable, and the entry risk would be relatively high.
On the other hand, short sellers may look for entry points near the current resistance levels, and if market selling pressure resumes, it would be reasonable to consider the $108,000 area as a potential exit point. This is because $108,000 is an important support level, and the price may find support after reaching this area, allowing for a certain profit upon closing. However, short selling also carries risks; if positive news suddenly emerges in the market, the price may rebound quickly, resulting in losses for short sellers.
Currently, Bitcoin is still in a consolidation phase, and during this phase, patience is crucial for traders. Traders should closely monitor changes in the order book before building positions, as the dynamics of the order book can reflect real-time changes in buying and selling power in the market; at the same time, attention should also be paid to momentum confirmation. Only when momentum indicators give clear signals can the accuracy of trading decisions be improved. Additionally, market trading volume, capital flow, and other factors should also be taken into account. After comprehensive analysis, trading decisions should be made to reduce risk and increase the likelihood of profit.
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