On September 7, during the Asian盘时段, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) experienced slight pullbacks in the short term. As of the time of writing, BTC is around $42,800, down about 1.2% from the day's high; ETH is around $2,350, with a daily decline of about 0.9%, and both have temporarily deviated from the slight rebound range observed earlier in the day. Market analysts believe that this wave of short-term volatility may be related to U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen's recent comments on employment data.
According to reports from the U.S. Treasury Department's official website and major financial media, Yellen mentioned in a closed-door economic forum on September 6 that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) may revise down some of the non-farm employment data for certain months in 2023 in the upcoming annual revision report. She indicated that based on recent reviews of discrepancies between business payroll data and household survey data, the employment growth figures for certain months in 2023 may have been overestimated, with revisions likely concentrated in the tens of thousands, particularly with a higher probability of adjustments for the second quarter data.
From the perspective of market logic, employment data is one of the core observation indicators of the resilience of the U.S. economy. Its downward revision may trigger a chain reaction: on one hand, this may imply that the actual vitality of the U.S. economy in 2023 is weaker than previously perceived, and the market's expectations for the intensity of economic recovery after the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle may become more cautious; on the other hand, the pricing of risk assets is often linked to the sensitivity of economic prospects. Cryptocurrencies, as a type of high-volatility risk asset, are prone to face short-term selling pressure when macro sentiment shifts towards conservatism.
It is worth noting that this round of short-term adjustment occurs against the backdrop of the recent narrow fluctuations in cryptocurrencies. Over the past week, BTC has consistently fluctuated between $42,500 and $43,800, while ETH has oscillated around $2,300 to $2,400, with the market lacking clear directional guidance. At this time, marginal macro-level news is more likely to amplify short-term volatility. Meanwhile, during the same period, the Nasdaq 100 index futures in the U.S. stock market also experienced a slight decline of 0.3%, and the U.S. dollar index rose slightly by 0.15% to around 104.2, indicating that risk assets are generally under some emotional pressure.
However, most analysts believe that this downward revision of employment data expectations is a 'lagging adjustment' and has a limited impact on the current path of Federal Reserve policy — the market has basically digested the expectation of no further interest rate hikes this year, with more focus shifting to the timing of rate cuts next year. Therefore, short-term fluctuations in cryptocurrencies may not change the mid-term oscillation pattern, and attention still needs to be paid to U.S. inflation data and changes in global liquidity as core variables.
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