The non-farm payroll data for August will be released tonight at 20:30, and the published value may influence the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates in September?
On September 5, 2025, at 20:30 Beijing time (tonight), the U.S. Department of Labor will release the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population data for August. The publication of this key economic indicator is likely to become an important signpost for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction in September.
The market currently widely predicts that this non-farm data will record 75,000 jobs, slightly higher than the previous value of 73,000 jobs, but the final result may directly disturb or even reverse the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut trajectory.
Currently, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, but the performance of the August non-farm data released this time may also become a key factor in determining the policy direction.
Analysts believe that if the data meets or exceeds expectations (indicating a recovery in the job market), combined with the recent inflation pressure that has not significantly eased, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points has basically become a certainty, and there is even a very small possibility of maintaining the interest rate unchanged.
However, if the published data is significantly lower than expected (such as weak job growth), the market does not rule out the possibility of the Federal Reserve aggressively cutting rates by 50 basis points to respond to economic downturn risks.
In addition, the situation of a recovering job market coexisting with stubborn inflation has also put the Federal Reserve in a dilemma between "fighting inflation" and "preventing recession."
Furthermore, some views suggest that after the data is released tonight, the market may experience significant volatility, especially in asset prices such as the U.S. dollar index, precious metals (such as gold), U.S. stocks, and cryptocurrencies, which may be directly impacted.
In summary, it is recommended that investors rationally view the impact of the data, manage positions cautiously, and guard against short-term risks.
