September interest rate cut is approaching: Reviewing BTC's three historical trends and analyzing the forecast for 2025
September has arrived, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window is gradually approaching. By reviewing BTC's past three trends associated with interest rate cuts, we can identify certain patterns and provide references for judging the trend in 2025.
First, let's look at the historical trend review:
1. 2019: Positive news was over-leveraged. Before the interest rate cut, the price of BTC rose from $3000 to $13000, but as soon as the interest rate cut news was announced, it immediately fell. In hindsight, the market had already fully speculated on the positive news of the “interest rate cut,” and after the news landed, investors shifted their attention to the reality of “economic weakness,” choosing to take profits and causing a price correction.
2. 2020: Special trend is not representative. At that time, the pandemic broke out, and the Federal Reserve directly cut interest rates to 0. BTC first plummeted along with the stock market and later rebounded due to a massive injection of liquidity. This extreme market environment makes it difficult to apply conventional interest rate cut cycle trend analysis.
3. 2024: Non-traditional rise. After this interest rate cut, BTC actually saw a rise, but there were many accidental factors behind it—Trump included cryptocurrency in the election agenda, ETFs had strong capital-raising capabilities, and companies continued to increase their holdings. Essentially, this rise was not solely dependent on liquidity easing, but more driven by “sufficiently attractive market stories.”
Now looking at the forecast for the trend in 2025, the core viewpoints are as follows:
- If BTC has significantly risen before the interest rate cut meeting, it is highly likely to repeat the 2019 trend of “positive news landing and then correcting.” At this time, it is advisable to take profits on part of the position in advance, as it is more prudent to secure gains.
- If BTC maintains sideways fluctuations or only slightly declines before the meeting, it indicates that the market has partially digested the positive news of the interest rate cut, and there is still upward space afterward. It can be temporarily held, and consider exiting after the price rises.
- Even if there is a rebound afterward, the peak is relatively limited and unlikely to break through previous highs. From the current market environment, BTC's short-term price limit may be around $120,000.
- The real trading opportunity may be in the second half of Q4. Once market liquidity stabilizes and demand gradually recovers, there may be a chance to hit new highs. Currently, “there will be a wave of trends by the end of the year” has become a common consensus in the market.
