$ETH

1. Compared to the stealthy actions of the 4500 defense battle two days ago, the shorts have completely unfolded in front of the longs. The absolutely overwhelming numbers have had a huge psychological impact on the longs. This formation of having the rear guard ready while the front line attacks makes it feel effortless and determined to win. It's not about whether the shorts can win, but when they want to win.

2. The median has been corrected to 4320; do not go long in short territory and do not go short in long territory.

3. Based on average costs, it's highly likely that the longs will attack first. Note that forecasts are not 100% accurate; something that is 100% accurate should be worshipped in a temple. The first resistance for the shorts is around 4365. Based on the longs and shorts, do not have too much expectation for this resistance. If it falls back to 4400, the longs will definitely lose.

4. The first line for the longs is around 4285. Based on the social dynamics of longs and shorts, this position is somewhat solid. Solid means it’s not easy to break through. You know how to operate. There is also a line at 4250. So give up your fantasy of getting chips at 4230; if it really comes to that point, in a situation where frontline soldiers collapse like a mountain, even with ten times your courage, you wouldn't dare to go long.

5. Regarding last night's situation, I thought about it carefully. I think someone must have defected at the last moment and gone short. The liquidity of the 4200 defense has significantly weakened. Since someone has gone short, they will not be the last one. As the situation changes, defections will become more and more frequent.

6. The shorts currently have little interest in moving south and seem to be waiting for something. It could be some news. I do not pay attention to the content of the news; changes will occur in the market before the news comes out. Just pay attention to observe. Of course, it could also be that the shorts have this style, slowly engaging in a tug-of-war, draining the cash flow of the longs, and then advancing step by step, steadily and firmly.