🌞September 1 Market Analysis
Good afternoon, everyone. The golden autumn of September has officially begun.
As emphasized recently, the market remains in a volatile range, and a real directional breakthrough needs to wait for the non-farm payroll data on September 5. The current trend fully aligns with expectations.
Technical and on-chain data are showing divergence:
The candlestick pattern is bearish, with risks of a panic sell-off, especially around the 100,000 mark;
On-chain performance is healthy: BTC continues to flow out of exchanges, whale holdings are stable, and long-term funds are still in position.
For example, the Japanese listed company Metaplanet has again increased its holdings by 1009 BTC (approximately $112 million) today.
The speed of corporate purchasing has reached four times the mining output speed—expect a medium-term V-shaped reversal.
Key macroeconomic points:
On September 9, the revised non-farm payroll data will be released (covering 2024.4–2025.3). After Trump replaced the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, historical employment data may be revised downwards, revealing the true weakness of the labor market and further driving expectations for interest rate cuts.
Operational advice:
Maintain a 40% cash position; if a sharp drop occurs, consider buying in batches.
