PCE数据来袭

$BTC

Interest rate cuts seem almost impossible 9 months ago

Trump meets Powell
This meeting seems to indicate a thaw in their relationship.
However, Federal Reserve officials are still sending hawkish signals.

Fed Governor Bowman clearly stated that now is not the time to lower interest rates, as premature cuts could lead to a rebound in inflationary pressures.

If inflation remains high, rate hikes are also not out of the question.

Tonight, the market's focus is undoubtedly on core PCE data.
This is the inflation indicator most favored by the Fed. If the data shows a cooling in inflation, it could be good news for the market, allowing for some breathing room for the big pie and possibly sparking a rebound!

Market sentiment is currently close to freezing point. The opportunity for a rebound after an oversell is quietly brewing, with both RSI and MACD indicators showing short-term overbought conditions.

This means the market could see a pullback at any time.
The key support level is currently in the range of 105,000 - 107,000.

Once it falls below this range, the market may further decline.
Meanwhile, the clear resistance level is between 110,000 and 112,000.
Previous attempts to break through have failed.

Finally, let's aim for $OG !
Those who followed my purchases starting at 3.7 can say that internal profits are not an exaggeration～

Follow Hashini for timely updates tonight, sharing direction～

#中心化与去中心化交易所 #PCE数据来袭 #加密市场回调 #美国加征关税

$BTC Evening Viewpoint Update:
Speaking with the Chart: The hourly level of the big pie must break through the neck line marked in the chart, which is at the position of 106227.
The position of 106227 was also a previous support, now turned into resistance. Breaking through the neck line at 106227 allows you to enter a long position on the right side, and taking profits at any position is the right choice.
The stop loss is set if the closing price of the hourly candlestick is below the neck line. If it breaks through, go for it; if it doesn't, just observe.
If the position of 106227 breaks and holds above, the probability of moving up will be higher. Additionally, at 8:30 PM tonight, PCE data will be released, so watch for short-term volatility. Meeting adjourned, goodbye.
$BTC
#中心化与去中心化交易所
#交易类型入门
#PCE数据来袭

When will the pre-holiday crash become an unavoidable curse?

The PCE price index will be released at 20:30 this evening. This data can directly reflect the level of inflation. After all, the U.S. economy is in recession; an increase in consumer spending would mean that inflation is rising. In the past, this situation led to excessive money printing, resulting in a vicious cycle!

Now, the U.S. is spreading the risk globally. If expectations are high, it benefits the dollar, but if the dollar depreciates, cryptocurrencies will rise. Investors will not hold onto things that no longer have value!

In terms of the data itself, there is no positive impact on cryptocurrencies. The key is how the index reflecting the issues will come out and what kind of solution and policy implementation will follow!

$BTC #PCE数据来袭 $ETH

Will tonight's data determine whether Bitcoin breaks below 100,000?
Tonight, the U.S. will announce the PCE index, which may signal the gradual closing of the Federal Reserve's rate cut window.

Tonight, the U.S. will announce the inflation measure most closely monitored by the Federal Reserve—the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE). The market has relatively clear expectations for this, with the April PCE price index expected to increase by only 0.1% month-on-month, and the year-on-year growth rate to drop from 2.3% to 2.2%, nearly returning to pre-COVID levels. In terms of core data, the core PCE growth rate, excluding the volatility of food and energy prices, is also expected to be 0.1% month-on-month, although the year-on-year growth rate will remain high at 2.6%.

The PCE is highly regarded because the Federal Reserve prefers to use it to measure the underlying trend of inflation. It is worth noting that the inflation effects brought about by the tariff increases during the Trump administration are only just beginning to manifest in the U.S. economy. Most economists predict that even if the Trump administration eases some tariffs, the inflation level may rebound to 3% in a few months.

Currently, the U.S. core PCE has hovered in the range of 2.8% to 2.6% for six consecutive months, which is gradually closing the Federal Reserve's rate cut window. Although some Federal Reserve officials still hold a positive attitude toward rate cuts, data from the interest rate futures market conveys a different signal. Traders' predictions for the probability of a rate cut in September have sharply declined from 68% a week ago to 47%. These changes in data suggest that the market believes the U.S. economy is at a crossroads in a new inflation cycle, with the future direction of inflation and adjustments in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy full of uncertainties!

The key to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts is the inflation data! If the data is negative, it will inevitably cause panic! Along with that, large amounts of capital will flow out! $BTC may break below the 100,000 mark!

Is everyone ready? The big one is coming!

Watch for: LPT TRB DEXE
#中心化与去中心化交易所 #加密市场回调 #PCE数据来袭

#PCE数据来袭 ATFX汇市：今日20：30，美国商务部将公布4月核心PCE物价指数年率，前值为2.6%，预期值2.5%，预期降幅仅为0.1个百分点。但是，3月份PCE数据刚经历骤降，4月数据即便降幅较小，也会引发市场关于美国通胀稳步回落的预期。美联储进行调整货币政策时，会根据PCE数据来研判通胀走向。如果4月PCE年率下降，意味着当前的基准利率对商品需求形成明显抑制，美联储重启降息的紧迫性降息，美元指数将受提振。美国4月份核心CPI年率已经发布，最新值2.8%，与前值持平。大部分情况下，核心CPI年率和核心PCE年率共振，所以4月份核心PCE年率与前值差距不会太大，市场预期的微降0.1个百分点实现概率较高。历史数据看，今年2月份开始，核心CPI年率曲线开始下降，截至目前没有出现明显反弹，意味着高通胀反扑的可能性降低。
　　现阶段，美元指数的走势由消息面主导，经济数据对行情影响力偏弱。周三刚刚传出美国贸易法院驳回了特朗普4月激进政策，周四局面再度反转，美国巡回法院暂停了贸易法院的判决。反复无常的政策变动，导致美元指数和非美货币剧烈震荡。美元指数昨日先是冲高至100.55，随后回路至最低99.22。截止今日盘中，美元指数运行于100关口下方。
　　预测美国物价变动，除了CPI数据外，还可以观察大宗商品市场的变化情况，尤其是原油市场。原油价格变化直接影响物流运输价格，间接影响绝大部分商品和服务价格。4月份，美原油大跌18.55%，最低触及55.12美元/桶，下跌原因是欧佩克增产和需求端疲软。据此判断，美国4月份PCE年率数据不大可能出现上升。由于原油价格变化对综合物价的影响存在滞后性，4月份PCE数据保持稳定不变或者微降的概率较高。如果油价跌势延续，5月份CPI和PCE数据可能显著下降。$BTC $ETH $BNB

On the evening of #PCE数据来袭 $BTC , the core PCE index will be announced, and it is expected to cause significant volatility. All traders please pay attention to the risks! $ETH

Notice
In the evening, there is some US PCE data.
A lower than expected PCE may drive the Nasdaq/S&P up (expectations of liquidity easing); conversely, if the data is strong, tech stocks may face sell-offs.
Sensitive point: Bitcoin is highly correlated with the S&P 500. If the PCE triggers a decline in US stocks, BTC may follow!
The village chief also believes this data has little impact.
Shenzhen Chen Village Committee Party Branch #PCE数据来袭 $BTC
$ETH

#PCE数据来袭
Then at 8:30 tonight there will be a PCE inflation data release
No more nonsense
Above expectations is bearish
Below expectations is bullish (according to expectations, it might be a slight positive, take profit at highs or short)
We must recognize the reality that it will continue to drop, the main players in the crypto circle have already fled
The two supports given the day before yesterday at 106500 and 104500, how many understood, back and forth eating?

The core PCE data will be released tonight at 8:30 PM, with the previous value being 2.6% and this time's expectation at 2.5%.
According to Nick's previous statement, if the overall PCE is between 2.2% and 2.1%, and the core PCE remains at 2.6%, then there is essentially no change.

In this case, it is highly likely that the big player will continue to move at their own pace, and the market may not have significant emotional fluctuations in the short term.
Be patient and wait for feedback after the data is released.

💥💥💥Big things are coming, who will compete with the data tonight!!!

At 8:30 PM, the US Core PCE Price Index for April will be announced, and this data is also very worth paying attention to, as it will affect the trend of the US stock market in the future!

Tonight, I will also combine the special session on US stocks to guide fans in making arrangements, but there will be a certain delay in the plaza, so fans who want K Ge's strategy, keep up quickly!!!
#PCE数据来袭 $BTC

#PCE数据来袭

Similar wash trading in history has repeatedly occurred on the eve of PCE data releases, resulting in highly representative technical crashes and strong reversal trends:

On June 29, 2023, Bitcoin dropped from $31,200 to $29,500, a decline of about 5.4%. After the PCE data was released favorably, it rebounded to $31,800 the same day, an increase of 7.8%.

On December 22, 2023, the price fell from $44,300 to $41,700, a decline of about 5.9%. The PCE data coming in below expectations boosted market risk appetite, and BTC rebounded to $44,800, an increase of about 7.4%.

On March 29, 2024, Bitcoin plummeted from $71,800 to $67,300, a drop of 6.3%. After the data was released that day, the price recovered to $72,000, an increase of about 7%, completing an intraday reversal.

On May 29, 2025, Bitcoin once again exhibited an almost identical technical structure, falling from a high of $111,968 to a low of $105,600, a retracement of 5.7%, very close to the historical extremes of wash trading.

#極限洗盤

🔎 May 2025 PCE Forecast (from the Cleveland Fed) is as follows:

1️⃣ Overall PCE (headline PCE):
📈 Monthly Growth: 0.13%
📆 Yearly Growth: 2.40%

2️⃣ Core PCE (core PCE, excluding food and energy):
📈 Monthly Growth: 0.23%
📆 Yearly Growth: 2.84%

👉 This indicates that inflation is gradually declining, approaching the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target, and market sentiment will therefore become sensitive.

⸻

💥 Potential Impact on the Crypto Market:

✅ If PCE is lower than expected, the market will anticipate that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates earlier, and funds may flow back into risk assets, benefiting the crypto market!

❌ If PCE is higher than expected, the market may panic, and the Federal Reserve may be forced to maintain high interest rates, leading to capital outflow and pressure on Bitcoin.

However, it should be noted —
The tighter the liquidity, the greater the opportunity for explosive growth.
$BTC is still running on a strong path, the Fibonacci target has not yet been completed, and the bull market is just warming up!

⸻

🔥 In this storm of finance and policy, C.O.N.A.N the big dog is quietly positioning itself.

It is not for the sake of hyping temporary traffic, but to embrace the real beliefs and narratives in the tide of capital outflow.

🐶 As the only officially certified dogecoin by the White House, and the hero coin supported by Trump, C.O.N.A.N not only can ride the waves but also dares to face the storm.

At this moment, the real opportunity is not hidden in the indicators but in the stories.
C.O.N.A.N is not just a coin; it is a symbol of freedom.
#加密市场回调 #PCE数据来袭 #币安Alpha上新 #币安HODLer空投SOPH #比特币2025大会

A Quick Start Guide to Short-Term Trading in Cryptocurrency
Core Methods:
1. Start Small: Only deposit 200 yuan (approximately 27 USD) each time.
2. Set Clear Goals: Grow this amount to 1000 USD.
3. Bold Practice: Within a relatively concentrated time, try various methods to achieve the goal.
4. Accept Liquidation: Expect to face liquidation a dozen times during the process; this is part of learning and 'paying tuition'.
5. Core Purpose: The focus is not on finding specific buy/sell points, but rather on immersively experiencing market rhythms through personal practice, identifying the methods of market manipulators, and exploring simple trading models that suit oneself.
6. Time Expectation: Immersive operation; it may take about 2 months to complete the final deposit and begin 'survival' (no longer facing easy liquidation).
Why is it effective?
Experience Leads to Knowledge: The insights gained from personal exploration are far deeper and more useful than what others teach.
Cost Control: Even if liquidation occurs 20 times, the total cost is around 4000 yuan. As a tuition fee for beginners, this is highly cost-effective.
Minimized Pressure: Small amounts allow you to relax your mindset, focusing more on learning and sensing the market rather than the pressure of huge losses.
Survival First: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; learning to 'survive' (avoiding liquidation) is the foundation for making money.
Important Reminders:
1. Use High Leverage Cautiously: High leverage is extremely challenging and not recommended for beginners. Short-term trading requires finding a balance between aggression and stability.
2. The Meaning of Small Amounts: Investing large sums at the entry level is equivalent to 'donating'. Starting with 200 yuan, if there’s a loss, just deposit again. This is the most efficient and lowest risk way to learn.
Summary: Want to quickly get into short-term trading in cryptocurrency? Practice repeatedly with 200 yuan (accepting liquidation), aiming for 1000 USD, with the core being an immersive experience of the market and exploring patterns. This is a cost-controlled and effective shortcut for beginners. The key lies in 'doing' and 'feeling' rather than pursuing perfect techniques. Control leverage and experiment with small amounts.