Currently, there is a clear divergence in the crypto market; Bitcoin (BTC) struggles to break downward pressure, Ethereum (ETH) has not halted its correction, while Dogecoin (DOGE) shows bullish signals. The key levels for the three major cryptocurrencies are clear, and the short-term trend needs to closely monitor whether support and resistance can be breached.
BTC: 110,000 resistance repeatedly pulls, on-chain signals show divergence
#BTC is currently quoted at around $111,090, down 10.5% from the historical high of $124,000, with a decline of 4.2% over the past week, still trapped in a short-term downward trend.
After BTC broke below $112,000, it continued to weaken, successively losing support at $111,500 and $110,500, with a low of $108,734; although it rebounded and broke through $112,000, it failed to maintain above it — currently still below $112,500 and the 100-hour moving average, with clear upward resistance: first looking at $112,500, with key resistance at $113,000 (corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the $117,354-$110,734 decline); if it can close above $114,000, it may aim for $115,000-$116,500.
If it fails to break $113,000, a new wave of declines may begin: first support at $110,600, then $109,500 and $108,750; once it breaks below $105,500, a further decline could accelerate.
From a technical perspective, the hourly MACD is decelerating in bearish territory, and RSI is below 50, indicating insufficient bullish momentum.
On-chain signals show divergence: Binance's 'Purchasing Power Ratio' (stablecoin inflow / BTC outflow) has risen to positive territory, indicating traders are converting to stablecoins and withdrawing BTC for long-term storage, which is a potential bullish signal; however, short-term holders' (STH) SOPR has dropped below 1, meaning recent buyers are losing money, which could trigger panic selling or a quick rebound, necessitating caution due to uncertainty.
ETH: Pressured at $4,600, retracement risks have not dissipated.
#ETH started a downward correction from $4,630, rebounding after dipping to a low of $4,310; although it broke through the $4,400 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the $4,310-$4,956 decline, it faced resistance at $4,630 (corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the aforementioned decline) and broke below the $4,600 ascending channel, currently sitting below $4,580 and the 100-hour moving average, showing clear bearish signs.
To move upward, it needs to first break $4,580, with key resistance at $4,630; if it can break through $4,710, it may advance towards $4,820-$5,000; if it fails to break $4,630, it will continue to retrace: first support at $4,460, then $4,420 and $4,310, further declines could touch $4,240 and $4,150.
From a technical standpoint, the hourly MACD is gaining momentum in bearish territory, and RSI is below 50, with short forces still present.
DOGE: Bullish signals are emerging, and the liquidation zone determines the short-term direction.
#DOGE is currently priced at $0.218; although it has declined over several weeks, it has maintained key support, and there are multiple bullish signals: the 4-hour TD Sequential indicator has issued a buy signal, and the daily chart shows a 'cup and handle structure' (if the neckline breaks, the target looks towards $0.42), needing to break resistance at $0.244 and $0.277 to accelerate upward.
Market sentiment is also leaning bullish: among Binance derivatives, long accounts for DOGE occupy 75%, while shorts are only 25%, echoing technical signals.
However, be cautious of liquidation risks — the liquidation heatmap shows a long liquidation cluster around $0.215 and a short liquidation cluster around $0.225: breaking below $0.215 could trigger long liquidations and exacerbate selling; breaking above $0.225 could trigger short squeezes and boost upward movement.
In the short term, DOGE needs to make a directional choice in the $0.215-$0.225 range; if it can break through resistance, it is likely to aim for the target of $0.42; if it loses support, the bullish pattern may fail.
