The current crypto market has three core focus points: First, there is doubt about the Bitcoin bull market cycle, with multiple analysts warning that October may mark the end, and September has historically been the worst-performing month of the year; Second, old coins are emerging with '10x startup logic', as validated by TROLL and PYTHIA; Third, WLFI on Binance contracts has rebounded from the bottom, with clear expectations from the community regarding its opening price and investor returns.
Bitcoin bull market: Will October be the end? September's weakness + sentiment divergence becomes key.
Regarding the duration of the #Bitcoin bull market, analysts have differing opinions, with the core debate focusing on 'whether historical cycles will repeat' and 'whether current sentiment matches the top':
Bearish logic: Cycles, indicators, and historical performance all give warnings.
• Cycle length warning: Analyst Inmortal posted on platform X stating that Bitcoin's previous bull markets have lasted about 1060 days; if this pattern holds, the current bull market may end in October this year;
Analyst Jelle further added that the current bull market cycle may only have about 55 days left, and this prediction aligns with the rhythm that Solana and Ethereum 'will reach new highs' — as altcoins usually peak about a month later than Bitcoin.
• Technical indicators support: Analyst Ali mentioned 'weekly RSI top divergence', which successfully predicted the 2021 Bitcoin bear market; additionally, indicators such as the spot receiver CVD and BTC receiver buy-sell ratio show that selling pressure may increase in late September.
• Historical weakness in September: According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin's historical average return in September is -3.77%, the lowest of the year. Coupled with current market attention on the Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision, volatility may increase further.
Counterpoint: Sentiment has not yet reached 'top euphoria'.
Analyst Colin Talks Crypto believes 'the top has not yet arrived', with the core reason being 'market sentiment does not match': 'Many people say BTC's top will form within 2 months, which is possible, but it lacks a key element — sentiment. Where is the euphoric feeling of a bull market top now? Sentiment, as an important indicator, has not yet reached its peak.'
Old coins hide 10x opportunities! TROLL and PYTHIA validate 5 major initiation logics.
Old MEME coins often struggle to generate momentum due to many trapped positions and decreased attention, but the recent 10x increase in #TROLL and #PYTHIA has revealed a 'startup code' for a type of old coin, summarized into 5 key features:
1. Long sideways cycle: Fluctuating in 'months' - TROLL has been sideways for 3 months in the $10 million market cap range, and PYTHIA has similarly fluctuated in that range for several months. Prolonged sideways action can digest trapped positions and cause most investors to lose interest;
2. Market capitalization locked in a specific range: Fluctuating around $10 million, with no significant deviation, indicating an increasing concentration of chips;
3. Surge of new addresses before startup: In the half month before both startups, a large number of new addresses were added among the top 100 addresses, suggesting that funds are being laid out in advance;
4. A 'good news trigger' is needed: The startup is not without signs, requiring a clear piece of good news (such as ecosystem upgrades, partnership announcements, etc.) to break the sideways action;
5. Low attention 'invisibility': Very few people discuss before the startup, without large 'head' promotions, avoiding attracting retail investors too early and leaving room for subsequent increases.
For investors, these 5 logics can help organize previously popular old coins — targets with 'low attention, long sideways, and new addresses' may hide the next doubling opportunity.
WLFI contract rebound: Opening expectation is $0.3, with clear returns for early investors.
#WLFI on Binance contracts has recently rebounded from the bottom, and the community has clear expectations for its opening price and the returns for investors at different costs:
• Opening price expectation: It is generally believed that the opening price of WLFI will be around $0.3;
• Unlocking rules and returns: According to the previous unlocking rules, early investors unlock 20% of their positions at opening, with significant differences in returns based on varying costs:
◦ Investors with a cost of $0.015: Unlocking part of the position at opening can yield 4 times returns, and including the unlocked positions, the total floating profit reaches 20 times;
◦ Investors with a cost of $0.05: Unlocking part of the position at opening can yield 1.2 times returns;
◦ Investors who bought off-exchange in the UAE at $0.15 can recover 40% at opening, and including the unlocked positions, the total floating profit reaches 2 times.
Overall, the current market exhibits 'multiple main lines running in parallel': Bitcoin needs to focus on September performance and October cycle nodes, while old coins can seek opportunities based on 5 major logics. WLFI needs to pay attention to whether the opening price meets expectations — opportunities in different directions require combining with one's risk tolerance for decision-making.
