On Monday, U.S. stock indices opened, the Nasdaq index slightly rose by 0.17%, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.15%, and gold prices fell by 0.05%. Federal Reserve Collins: The U.S. labor market faces downward risks, and we cannot wait until all uncertainties are resolved before discussing interest rate changes. BNP Paribas and Barclays expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in both September and December.

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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has launched a series of roundtable discussions through its cryptocurrency special task force, fully aware that any regulatory framework will have far-reaching impacts, and hopes to ensure communication and exchange are as comprehensive as possible. Hong Kong's Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, Christopher Hui, stated that the positioning of stablecoins in Hong Kong is clear, serving as a delivery tool and another representation of Hong Kong's legal currency, with no speculative opportunities, reminding the public to be cautious. Federal Reserve Musalem stated that the focus should be on the overall interest rate path, not just the interest rate decisions of a single meeting; the next employment report may be sufficient to justify a rate cut, depending on the specifics of the report. The risk in the labor market is rising; the inflation effects of tariffs are expected to gradually dissipate, and if labor market risks increase, the policy rate may need adjustment. Musk stated that xAI's Grok 2.5 has now been open-sourced, and Grok 3 will be open-sourced in about six months. El Salvador has cumulatively increased its holdings by 7 BTC over the past week, totaling 6,278.18 BTC. Japan's listed company Metaplanet has increased its holdings by 103 BTC, totaling 18,991 BTC. Japan's Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu stated that he will create a suitable environment for crypto assets, which could serve as part of a diversified investment portfolio.

Lookonchain data shows that a whale address holding 100,784 BTC sold 22,769 BTC (worth $2.59 billion) and shifted to increase its holdings by 472,900 ETH. The Kobeissi Letter states that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in a month, attributing it to a weak labor market. Powell's speech on Friday represented a significant shift: the change in risk balance may require adjustments in policy stance, and the Federal Reserve now believes that the risk of unemployment is greater than that of inflation, which almost confirms that a rate cut is imminent. Analyst Linh Tran stated that BTC's recent outlook will largely depend on the upcoming U.S. economic data. If the data continues to show a slowdown in the U.S. economy and a decrease in inflation, the Federal Reserve will have more justification to initiate a rate cut cycle, creating a liquidity-rich environment that is conducive to BTC's recovery. Analyst Murphy stated that in September 2020, ETH/BTC was at 0.038, rising to 0.086 thereafter, with the current ETH/BTC around 0.04, still far from the 0.08 of 2021, theoretically leaving room for growth. Last week, the U.S. BTC spot ETF saw outflows of $1.178 billion, while ETH spot ETF experienced net outflows of $241 million. BlackRock's ETH spot ETF holdings rose to 3,541,277 ETH, valued at $15 billion, increasing by 50% over the past month. The total scale of U.S. ETH spot ETFs exceeded $30 billion for the first time, representing 5.36% of the total circulating ETH supply. Strategy increased its holdings by 3,569 BTC last week.

David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin Magazine, stated that there will not be another bear market in the coming years, and U.S. institutions will ultimately hold BTC, a process that has officially begun. Currently, it does not even occupy 0.01% of the total market size. Bitwise data shows that stablecoins have become significant holders of U.S. Treasury bonds, holding approximately $180 billion, surpassing countries like Germany, South Korea, and the UAE. Jack Yi, founder of LD Capital: After ETH's new high, the next target is a new high for ETH/BTC. During the rate cut cycle, ETH has consistently outperformed BTC while also undergoing mainstream rotation; in a bull market trend, avoid high leverage. Two ancient BTC whales have staked a total of 275,500 ETH worth $1.3 billion over the past four days by selling BTC to increase their ETH holdings. The Kobeissi Letter stated that the Federal Reserve has indeed fallen behind in the current global rate cut cycle, with central banks around the world cutting rates 15 times just in May. The Federal Reserve's first rate cut in 2025 will come in a month. Trump stated that his chosen new Federal Reserve chief must cut rates, and 2026 will be a historic year for the market. Federal Reserve spokesperson reporter Nick Timiraos stated: Powell is cautiously laying the groundwork for a rate cut next month, but do not expect drastic actions; the market has basically priced in a rate cut in September, and the focus is shifting to whether the Federal Reserve will consider cutting rates again in the last two meetings of this year (October and December).

Trump criticized that Powell should have lowered interest rates a year ago, and now it is too late to signal a rate cut. Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida stated that the Federal Reserve seems poised to lower policy rates soon, but will take a cautious approach. Federal Reserve Collins: Currently, the U.S. economy faces upward risks of inflation and downward risks in the labor market; we cannot wait until all uncertainties are resolved before discussing interest rate changes. BNP Paribas and Barclays expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in both September and December. On Monday, U.S. stock indices opened, the Nasdaq index slightly rose by 0.17%, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.15%, and gold prices fell by 0.05%. BTC fell by 1.8%, and ETH fell by 6.8%. Last Friday, at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, the Federal Reserve shifted its primary mission to support the labor market; changes in risk balance may require policy adjustments, and Powell hinted that the Federal Reserve might cut rates. Historical data shows that whenever the Federal Reserve accumulates a rate cut of 2%, the S&P 500 index has averaged a rise of +13.9% in the following 12 months. Over the past weekend, many BTC whales sold off and shifted to increase their holdings in ETH, with one whale address holding over 100,000 BTC selling 22,700 BTC and increasing its ETH holdings by 472,900. This led to ETH briefly touching a new high of $4,900, before being continuously sold off by whales, causing a widespread decline in the cryptocurrency market.

BTC's market share dropped by 2.52% to 57.9% over the past week, marking a new low since January this year; the total market capitalization excluding BTC increased by 2.64%, and the total market capitalization excluding BTC and ETH rose by 0.59%. The decline in BTC's market share and the profit outflow from whales to ETH indicates that the rotation pattern of the bull market still exists, transitioning step by step from top to bottom. Mainstream cryptocurrencies like ETH have recently reached new highs, which is also a rotation phenomenon from the last bull market cycle. In terms of the macro environment, the Federal Reserve hinted at possible rate cuts; lower interest rates provide support for the market, indicating that a bull market is essentially forming. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates in September, October, and December, paving the way for a smooth bull market.