On Monday, U.S. stock indices saw the Nasdaq index rise by 1.7%, the S&P 500 index rise by 1%, and the Dow Jones index rise by 0.5%. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 AM this Thursday, with expectations of a 25 basis points cut to 3.75-4%. Citigroup believes that as the labor market weakens, the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December, January, and March;
Back to the point:
The Director of the U.S. White House Council of Economic Advisers, Kevin Hassett, stated that inflation is slowing down, the pressure on the Federal Reserve is easing, and a government shutdown could lead to a weekly decline of one-tenth of a percentage point in U.S. GDP. Bank of Ghana Governor Johnson Asiana stated at the IMF meeting that a cryptocurrency regulatory bill will be introduced by the end of the year, and the bill has been submitted to Parliament, hoping to complete the legislation by the end of December. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen: The candidate list for the Federal Reserve Chair has been narrowed down to five people, including current Fed Governor Waller, Bowman, former Fed Governor Warsh, White House Council of Economic Advisers Director Hassett, and BlackRock executive Reed. Plans for a second round of interviews are underway. Bloomberg: Mining company TeraWulf Inc. has completed a $3.2 billion debt transaction intended for the expansion of data centers. Musk's SpaceX transferred 1215 BTC, valued at $133 million; it previously transferred BTC worth $268 million three days ago. Quantum Solutions increased its holdings by 500 ETH, totaling 4365 ETH. Glassnode reported that since the crash on October 11, the CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) for spot and futures has stabilized, indicating that aggressive selling pressure over the past few days has noticeably weakened.
Bloomberg: JPMorgan plans to allow institutional clients to use its held BTC and ETH as collateral by the end of this year, marking Wall Street's accelerated integration into the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan's leader who once dismissed BTC as a 'pet rock,' no longer regards cryptocurrencies as marginal assets. A JPMorgan spokesperson declined to comment. Tom Lee, in an interview with CNBC, stated: The crypto market experienced a wave of massive deleveraging on October 11, with contributing factors including tariffs, and he believes these phenomena are about to end, with technical indicators turning positive, expecting a rise before the end of the year. JPMorgan recently stated that it may accept cryptocurrencies as collateral in the future, which is very helpful for market confidence. Analyst Murphy noted that BTC has returned above the average cost of short-term holders, which may confirm that conclusions about the end of the bull market cycle are overly subjective, ignoring that it is objectively in a macro-driven new cycle. During the downtrend of the first two rounds of bear markets from 2017 to 2022, it was nearly impossible for BTC to frequently break back after falling below STH-RP, but that is clearly not the case now; it can at most be considered a phase of bearish market sentiment.
Last week, the US BTC spot ETF saw a cumulative inflow of $446.3 million. The ETH spot ETF had a cumulative outflow of $243.9 million. Strategy increased its position by 390 BTC last week, with an average price of $111,053, and currently holds 640,808 BTC. Sharplink Gaming increased its holdings by 19,271 ETH, totaling 859,395 ETH, valued at approximately $3.58 billion. Glassnode released data indicating a net outflow from the spot BTC ETF, a phenomenon often concentrated near local market lows, accompanied by a decline in market sentiment; when the spot ETF stabilizes or turns positive, historical trends indicate that the initial stage of demand recovery and trend warming has already arrived. Glassnode stated that since the 1011 crash, the CVD (buy-sell difference) of spot and futures has first tended to flatten, indicating that the strong selling pressure of the past few days has subsided, with interest rates still below the neutral level of 0.01%, indicating no excessive long positions or bubbles, and aggressive selling pressure has peaked; these extreme sentiments usually indicate opportunities for trend reversals.
Trump stated that perhaps by the end of this year, there will be related decisions regarding the Federal Reserve. US Treasury Secretary Becerra: The list of candidates for Federal Reserve Chairman has been narrowed down to five people. Bloomberg: Trump appointed Michael Selig as the head of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to address the growth of the crypto industry. Michael Selig is an advisor to the SEC's cryptocurrency task force and was a partner in the asset management business at Willkie Farr & Gallagher law firm. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas: Canary Capital submitted Form 8-A for LTC and HBAR, following Bitwise's application for Solana, adding two more cryptocurrency ETF applicants; despite the US government shutdown, these ETFs may still launch this week. Although not finalized, relevant preparatory work has clearly progressed and is worth continued attention.
On Monday, US stock indices opened, with the Nasdaq index rising 1.7% during the session, the S&P 500 index up 1%, and the Dow Jones index up 0.5%, all reaching new highs; gold fell 2.5% to $4,000/ounce; BTC rose 2%, and ETH rose 4%. US Treasury Secretary Becerra stated that the overall inflation rate has decreased and expressed confidence that inflation will continue to decline, approaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target. At 2:00 AM this Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut to 3.75-4%. Powell and his colleagues' statements on Thursday may appear slightly dovish. Citigroup expects that, with a weak labor market, the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December, January, and March next year, while Morgan Stanley anticipates five rate cuts due to slowing US economic growth and cooling inflation forcing the Federal Reserve to bolster the economy. Last week's data showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for September was 3%, below the expected 3.1%, with inflation remaining stable. To prevent further slowdown in the labor market, the Federal Reserve may initiate a series of rate cuts; in addition to the rates themselves, the Federal Reserve may also discuss halting the reduction of its balance sheet (stopping tapering) this week. The Federal Reserve's initiation of a series of rate cuts and halting tapering, along with gold pausing its upward trend and no longer draining the crypto market, is hoped to provide a good rebound for the crypto market.
