According to Glassnode analysis, in the past week, the Bitcoin market experienced extreme volatility, with prices soaring to 117,000 USD at one point, followed by a sharp decline to 111,000 USD. The upward momentum in the spot market has weakened, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) trending towards the oversold range, accumulating selling pressure intensifying, while trading volume remains stable but shows no signs of improvement, indicating weak buyer confidence.
In the futures market, the open interest has shrunk, indicating a reduction in leveraged operations. However, as the bulls continue to increase their positions, the funding rate has skyrocketed. The net position has slightly improved, alleviating some selling pressure, but the cooling of speculative interest keeps the market outlook filled with uncertainty. Meanwhile, the options market reflects an increasing hedging sentiment. Open interest has slightly risen, but the volatility spread has sharply narrowed, highlighting that traders are hedging against potential downturns.
The capital flow of US Bitcoin spot ETFs presents a more pessimistic picture, with net capital flow turning from inflow to outflow, with a weekly net outflow reaching 1 billion USD. Trading volume has slowed down, and the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) of the ETF has weakened, indicating that after several weeks of strong capital inflow, the demand from traditional finance is cooling down, and the pressure for profit-taking is gradually increasing.
Overall, the market structure has shifted from exuberance to fragility. The momentum in both the spot and futures markets has weakened, the options market highlights hedging demand, and the capital flow of ETFs reveals a cautious attitude among institutional investors. On-chain data also confirms a cooling demand, slowing capital inflow, and declining profitability. As market volatility intensifies, the key in the coming weeks will be whether off-market funds will return to stabilize the market or if selling pressure will trigger deeper consolidation.
"MICA Daily｜Glassnode Analysis: Market sentiment shifts, structure has changed from exuberance to fragility" was first published on (Blockcast).
