Author: BitpushNews
The cryptocurrency market is experiencing heightened volatility. Bitcoin today (26) briefly fell below the $110,000 mark, hitting a low of $109,324, the lowest point since early July, while Ethereum briefly fell below $4,400, with a 24-hour decline of nearly 8%. This round of declines has triggered large-scale liquidations across the market: According to CoinGlass data, as of the writing of this article, the 24-hour liquidation amount exceeded $900 million, with Ethereum bulls losing about $322 million and Bitcoin bulls losing $207 million.
The market's chain reaction is swift, with mainstream competitive coins under pressure: Solana plummeted over 8% in a single day, XRP fell 6%, while smaller market cap tokens like PENDLE, LDO, and PENGU recorded double-digit declines, with daily drops as high as 13%.
Historical patterns: The 'curse' of September
Investor caution is not without reason; CoinGlass statistics show that September is one of the worst months for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The chart above compares the actual gains and losses of BTC and ETH in September from 2017 to 2024, showing that:
BTC has shown negative performance in September in most years, with only 2023 (+3.91%) and 2024 (+7.29%) recording increases.
The decline of ETH in September is usually significant, with notable underperformance against BTC in 2017 (–21.65%), 2020 (–17.08%), and 2022 (–14.49%).
Only in 2019 (ETH +5.72% vs BTC –13.38%), 2023, and 2024 did ETH show stronger performance.
The 'September Curse' has appeared in every bull market cycle. In 2013, 2017, and 2021, Bitcoin experienced sharp pullbacks in September following a strong summer rebound.
Analyst perspectives: Short-term trend reversal
Renowned analyst Benjamin Cowen noted that the strength of July-August often reverses in September, with Bitcoin likely to test the bullish support area around $110,000. He also warned that Ethereum might briefly reach new highs but then drop 20–30%, while competitive coins could see declines of 30–50%.
Another active market analyst, Doctor Profit, added a more pessimistic judgment from a macroeconomic and psychological perspective. He believes that the Fed's interest rate cuts in September are more of a trigger for uncertainty rather than a positive signal. Unlike the 'soft landing' rate cuts of 2024, this time could represent a true 'major turning point,' potentially leading to synchronized corrections in both the stock and crypto markets.
At the price level, he also emphasized that a CME gap exists in the BTC chart between 93k–95k, where a large amount of liquidity is concentrated, while retail investors' entry points are generally in the 110k–120k range or even higher. To flush out these 'weak hands,' the price must drop into their 'maximum pain zone.'
In his strategy, he stated that he has gradually reduced his positions in BTC and ETH spot, opting instead for short-term short positions.
The latest capital flow data shows that the enthusiasm for ETFs is cooling. According to SoSoValue, last week saw $1.17 billion flowing out of spot Bitcoin ETFs, marking the second-largest weekly net outflow in history; spot Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of $237.7 million, the third-largest record. This indicates a phase shift in institutional funds towards a wait-and-see approach, weakening the support for the spot market.
On-chain data also reveals structural signals. Glassnode pointed out that all Bitcoin holders have 'collectively entered a distribution phase,' highlighting that the market is experiencing widespread selling pressure. After Ethereum hit a new high of $4,946, the MVRV indicator rose to 2.15, indicating that investors, on average, hold more than twice the unrealized gains. Historically, this level is similar to those seen in December 2020 and March 2024, both of which occurred before significant volatility and profit-taking.
Macro factors: The Fed and interest rate risks
The uncertainty of the macro environment further exacerbates market tension. Last Friday, Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a potential rate cut in September, momentarily stimulating market optimism, but both Cowen and Doctor Profit warned that rate cuts are not necessarily beneficial and could lead to rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields, thus suppressing risk assets. This situation is quite similar to September 2023, when the rate cut marked the low point of the bond market, followed by a surge in yields. Additionally, Benjamin Cowen pointed out that recent Producer Price Index (PPI) data shows that inflation is 'hotter than expected,' which undoubtedly adds extra pressure to the market. In light of inflationary pressures not fully alleviated, a policy shift by the Fed could trigger new market turmoil.
Outlook and conclusion
Looking at historical patterns, analyst perspectives, and the macro environment, it is evident that September poses multiple pressures on the crypto market:
Seasonal downtrend - Historically, September has recorded significant losses on average;
Macro uncertainty - The Fed's policy may become a watershed moment for the market;
Imbalanced capital structure - Institutional funds are flowing out, while retail investors chase high prices;
On-chain selling pressure intensifies - All coin-holding groups enter distribution, and whale trades disturb the market.
Although Cowen and Doctor Profit have different judgments on the magnitude of adjustments, the consensus is that September is not a turning point for the bull market but a test that must be faced.
However, from a longer-term perspective, this cleansing may also be a necessary step for the continuation of a bull market. The market needs to clear overheated positions in the 'maximum pain zone' to create space for the next round of upward movement. If the cleansing is sufficient, BTC may still challenge new highs in subsequent cycles, and the long-term upward logic for ETH will not change.
(The above content is excerpted and reprinted with the authorization of partner PANews, original article link | Source: Bitpush)
"Bitcoin falls below $110,000, with $900 million liquidated across the network. Is the 'September Curse' playing out early?" This article was first published on (Block Guest).
