Capital is pivoting from Bitcoin to Ether as whales sell heavily, while ETH and BNB still maintain a bullish structure on the charts.
BTC selling pressure mainly comes from large whale transactions and short-term profit-taking, while the long-term trend has not broken. ETP data indicates that capital is shifting towards Ether, while some blue-chip assets like BNB and SOL maintain positive technical signals.
MAIN CONTENT
Whales are the main drivers of selling pressure on BTC; ETP flows are shifting from BTC to ETH according to CoinShares reports.
ETH and BNB remain technically strong; notable levels: BTC at $110,530, ETH 20-day EMA at $4,349, BNB at $861.
The SPX index maintains an upward trend, with DXY slightly leaning towards the sellers; the macro context supports risky assets if this scenario holds.
Is capital flowing from BTC to ETH?
Yes. CoinShares recorded a net outflow of -$1 billion in BTC ETP last week, while ETH ETP has attracted $2.5 billion this month to date. This aligns with the signal of a pivot to ETH.
Data from Arkham, Lookonchain shows a whale deposited about 22,769 BTC ($2.59 billion) onto Hyperliquid (HYPE) to sell, then bought 472,920 ETH ($2.22 billion) spot and opened a Long position of 135,265 ETH ($577 million). Conversely, according to SEC filings, Michael Saylor's company bought an additional 3,081 BTC worth $356.9 million, raising its total holdings to 632,457 BTC.
ETP flows and whale behavior reinforce the argument for pivoting to ETH, but there is still institutional buying into BTC. Investors need to monitor the durability of technical levels to confirm the trend.
"Bitcoin is digitizing gold."
-- Larry Fink, CEO BlackRock, CNBC Squawk Box, 12/01/2024
Recent ETP BTC net flow -$1 billion CoinShares ETP ETH net flow this month +$2.5 billion CoinShares Whales sold BTC, bought ETH 22,769 BTC sold; 472,920 ETH bought; Long 135,265 ETH Arkham, Lookonchain (X) Michael Saylor's company bought 3,081 BTC worth $356.9 million SEC filing
Is BTC selling pressure mainly coming from whales?
Yes. Arkham/Lookonchain data indicates that large whale transactions are the main driver of recent selling pressure, rather than market structure changes.
When an entity deposits 22,769 BTC onto derivatives/DEX to sell, liquidity is quickly absorbed, causing spillover effects to spot and ETP. Meanwhile, BTC ETP recorded a net outflow of $1 billion (CoinShares), weakening short-term passive demand. However, institutional buying still appears, creating a buffer for technical support.
This pattern is often accompanied by high volatility, but does not necessarily break the larger trend if the key supports are protected and capital flows return.
Will buyers maintain the important support level of BTC?
Temporarily yes. BTC is being defended by buyers at $110,530, but the 20-day EMA around $115,639 could trigger strong selling on a bounce.
If the price is rejected at the 20-day EMA and breaks $110,530, the BTC/USDT pair could fall to $105,000, possibly even the psychological level of $100,000. A positive scenario opens up if it breaks above $117,500, forming a range of $110,530–$124,474 for accumulation.
In terms of sentiment, net ETP outflows and whale selling could test support multiple times. Conversely, institutional net buying will help reduce selling pressure at dynamic resistances.
Does the strength of ETH trigger an altcoin rally?
It is possible. ETH recently set a historical peak of $4,956 before correcting; holding the 20-day EMA at $4,349 will strengthen the advantage for altcoins.
If it bounces strongly from the 20-day EMA, ETH could surpass $5,000 and target $5,500, usually leading to positive sentiment for large altcoins. Conversely, breaking the 20-day EMA could bring the price down to support at $4,060, weakening the spread argument.
With ETP flows skewed towards ETH and large Long positions from whales, the probability of holding the 20-day EMA is increased, but still needs confirmation through spot liquidity.
Does BNB maintain sustainable upward momentum?
Yes, provided it holds above $861 and quickly reclaims $900. BNB just set a historical peak and buyers still dominate.
Profit-taking near $900 has pulled the price back to the breakout area at $861. Bouncing back and breaking $900 will open the target of $1,000. If it breaks the 20-day EMA at $838, the upward momentum weakens and could correct deeply to the 50-day SMA at $779.
Momentum remains favorable as long as the breakout area is protected and breakout volume is maintained.
Has Solana completed a bullish triangle pattern?
It is possible, if it breaks and closes above $210. Buyers are defending well, not giving much ground to sellers.
The ascending triangle pattern confirms when breaking above $210, with targets of $240 and $265 (pattern target). If it continues to decline and breaks the ascending resistance, the SOL/USDT pair could retreat to $155, where buying pressure is expected to appear.
Breakout momentum needs to be accompanied by increased volume to avoid a bullish trap around horizontal resistance.
Does XRP face the risk of breaking the descending triangle?
Yes. XRP is forming a descending triangle, which will activate when it breaks and closes below $2.73.
The 20-day EMA at $3.04 is slightly declining and RSI below neutral indicates balance. If rejected at the 20-day EMA and falls below $2.73, the downside target is $2.33. Conversely, closing above the resistance level will invalidate the pattern, reopening $3.40 and $3.66.
Price reaction at the lower edge of the triangle is key to determining the risk of a deep decline.
In which range is Dogecoin accumulating?
In the range of $0.21–$0.26. DOGE bounced from $0.21 and broke the 20-day EMA at $0.22, but could not hold the highs.
The 20-day EMA is flat and the RSI is neutral, reflecting a balance in supply and demand, supporting sideways movement for a few more days. Breaking and closing above $0.26 opens the way to $0.29, then $0.35. Conversely, breaking $0.21 could pull back to $0.19, then $0.16.
Traders should be patient and wait for a breakout to confirm the next direction.
Does Cardano face the risk of a deep correction?
Yes, if it closes below the 20-day EMA at $0.86. Although the overall trend still leans towards buyers, momentum is weakening.
The upward-moving average supports the bullish trend, but negative RSI divergence warns of risks. Breaking the 20-day EMA increases the likelihood of falling below the 50-day SMA at $0.80 and could reach $0.70. Conversely, breaking above $1.02 would continue the upward trend to $1.17.
Risk management around dynamic levels is essential in a period of declining momentum.
What happens when Chainlink is blocked at $27?
Selling pressure is very intense at $27. Sellers want to push the price down to the 20-day EMA at $23.37.
If LINK/USDT bounces strongly from the 20-day EMA, buyers will attempt to break through $27 again; success could push the price to $31. Conversely, closing below the 20-day EMA signals a rapid outflow, increasing the risk of a deep correction to $20.84.
The 20-day EMA area is the testing ground for LINK's short-term trend.
Is the S&P 500 supporting risky assets?
There are positive signals. SPX bounced strongly from the 20-day EMA at $6,392, indicating buying on corrections.
If it breaks $6,581, the index could target $6,696. Although the trend is still upward, negative RSI divergence signals weakening enthusiasm. Sellers need to pull below the 20-day EMA to accelerate selling, at which point SPX could return to the breakout area at $6,147.
If SPX holds above the 20-day EMA, risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, are usually supported in sentiment.
Which way is the DXY leaning?
Slightly leaning towards the sellers. DXY exceeded the moving average but was quickly sold off at the high.
The downward-moving average and neutral RSI provide a slight advantage to the sellers. Losing 97.50 could drop to 97 then 96.37. Conversely, quickly breaking above 99 would strengthen the momentum, targeting 100.50; if it breaks 100.50, the upward momentum could extend to 102.
A weakening DXY usually supports capital flows into risky assets; the opposite will apply pressure.
What is the strength of ETH and its role in the altcoin ecosystem?
ETH leads altcoin sentiment by maintaining a bullish structure and attracting ETP flows. Holding the 20-day EMA is crucial.
The liquidity elasticity of ETH along with its infrastructural role for DeFi/L2 enhances expectations when the price breaks out. However, altcoins remain sensitive to macro fluctuations and DXY. Investors should prioritize assets with a clear technical structure and strong fundamentals.
When ETH is strong, capital flows typically move from top cap to mid cap, but are highly selective based on project quality.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why has BTC selling pressure increased recently?
Arkham and Lookonchain data show that whales deposited 22,769 BTC onto exchanges to sell, combined with a net outflow of $1 billion in BTC ETP (CoinShares), creating short-term supply pressure.
What level does ETH need to hold to maintain its bullish trend?
Holding above the 20-day EMA around $4,349. A strong bounce from here could push the price above $5,000 and target $5,500.
What will happen to BNB if it breaks $861?
If it loses $861 and the 20-day EMA at $838, the upward momentum weakens, and the risk of a correction to the 50-day SMA at $779 increases.
When does SOL activate a bullish pattern?
When breaking and closing above $210. The next target is $240 and $265 if volume confirms.
Does XRP face the risk of a deep decline?
Yes, if it breaks $2.73. The downside target could be $2.33. Breaking the resistance level will invalidate this scenario.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/du-bao-gia-25-8-spx-den-link/
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