25/08/25 BTC frequently tests box support, Ethereum creates a new historical high and falls back, with one last drop before the interest rate cut in September.
Bitcoin showed a spike in the early morning, completely erasing the gains from Powell's speech, and the lowest spike reached 110680. Currently, it is still near the bottom of the spike, and the rebound is very weak. It also fell below the previous box bottom of 111920, so attention should be paid to whether it will accelerate the opening of downward space. There is still one last drop before the interest rate cut in September.
Ethereum peaked at 4956, and similarly dropped in the early morning, with a daytime low of 4520. The daily chart also shows a second test of the top followed by a pullback. There is a pattern that every time Bitcoin drops, funds flow into Ethereum and altcoins. At such times, caution is advised, but currently, Ethereum still appears to be strong, although one should pay attention to follow Bitcoin's trend.
BTC D's total market value has shown up and down spikes on the daily chart, and it has also reached the support level above 50% previously. There is an opportunity for a rebound here, but the height of the rebound is temporarily uncertain, and there is still a trend of continued decline later.
The three major U.S. stock indices saw the Dow Jones finally break through its historical high, while the other two indices have been fluctuating above new highs. The S&P 500 index futures CFD showed a decline before the market opened, and all three indices opened lower. Therefore, the movement of U.S. stocks is currently in line with the prediction made on the 19th that after some fluctuations, there is still a chance for new highs.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin broke below the M-top with a lowest spike of 110680, and it has erased all the gains from Powell's speech on the evening of the 22nd. Currently, it is still leaning towards bearish. We need to pay attention to whether it can return above 118,600. If it cannot, the risk of a drop remains unresolved. From my current perspective, the recovery cycle has been extended, and the next key support is 100,000.
Since the rise from 15400 in 2022, every segment's increase has tested previous high support, but none have completely fallen below the support. The current test is also the support of the high point that broke from the end of 2024 to July 2025. From my perspective, I still hope it will repeatedly test this support for a fake breakout and rebound. This would be the most effortless and cost-effective trend; otherwise, the adjustment time will be prolonged.
Support: 100000 to 106000
Resistance: 114500 to 117200
Ethereum
After Ethereum's daily chart hit a new high, it fell back, and the MACD also showed a top divergence. Therefore, it is currently not suitable to chase high prices. After a pullback, it is still an opportunity to enter. The support below is 4400 to 4060. If Bitcoin drops sharply, we will consider adding positions near 3600 to 3800.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate rebounded close to the Fibonacci 0.382 level, and this rebound is quite good, rising from the lowest point of 0.01766 to the current 0.04327, an increase of 144%. Once a pullback occurs, it will not be small, so caution is needed. Yesterday, it was also mentioned that in January 2021, Bitcoin surged to 64,800, increasing by about 1.2 times, while Ethereum rose from 950 to over 4300, nearly 3.6 times.
However, this premise is that Bitcoin must also hold the support and rebound upwards to create conditions for Ethereum and altcoins.
Support: 4060 to 4400
Resistance: 4788 to 4956
