25/08/28 BTC rebounds back to the range, but the momentum is insufficient and still needs observation. What is the likely direction going forward?
Bitcoin's short-term price has returned to the bottom of the range, with a highest touch of 103300. The 4-hour chart is in an upward channel, the MACD histogram is shortening, and the daily KDJ is crossing. However, the volume is insufficient. Tonight's unemployment data and tomorrow night's PCE will be crucial in deciding whether to increase or decrease the probability of a rate cut in September based on the current expectations.
Ethereum's overall performance is still stronger than Bitcoin, but the short-term trend is volatile, with highs decreasing in this range. We are still waiting for better entry opportunities.
London gold is strengthening and has now reached below a converging triangle; we are watching for its breakout situation. The US dollar index is actually declining, and the US 10-year and 5-year government bonds are also showing a drop.
Bitcoin
In a bull market, MA120 is a very important support level, also known as the bull-bear line. Therefore, this wave of decline also retraced, with a low drop to 108666 before rebounding. Currently, we are paying attention to 115000 and the resistance of MA20 and MA60. The MACD histogram is shortening, and we are watching to see if it can show a bottom divergence with KDJ forming a golden cross. The volume is insufficient, and the 4-hour chart is in an upward channel; we are focusing on the breakout situation of this channel.
The gentleman predicts two scenarios. The first is a rebound to 115000-116000, followed by a pullback to continue testing the support of MA120, gradually grinding upwards with an extended time cycle.
The second scenario is a breakdown of MA120 to 98000-100000 followed by another rebound.
Support: 108666-110800
Resistance: 115000-117500-118600
Ethereum
The overall pullback of Ethereum is relatively weak, with little price change. However, it is still at a high level, and the gentleman does not recommend random operations due to low cost-effectiveness. Future opportunities to dip back to around 4060 should be considered for gradual accumulation, and it is also possible to fake breakdown and touch 3800-3900 before rebounding. This entire uptrend has been rapid rises followed by consolidations, and similar to Bitcoin, a fake breakdown and recovery for Ethereum cannot be ruled out.
After a false breakout on the daily chart, the highs are moving down. This is not suitable for chasing gains, and it is also not suitable for medium to long-term layouts. The gentleman thinks that a pullback to 4060 or a breakdown to 3800-3900 is an opportunity to gradually accumulate.
Support: 3800-3900-4060
Resistance: 4665-4788-4956
