The current cryptocurrency market is clearly "uneven": Bitcoin (#BTC) is facing historical pressure from the "September Curse" while trying to hold the support level of $110,000; if it breaks, it may drop to $100,000. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) aims for $5,500, and its ecosystem's Remittix (RTX) and Ethena (ENA) have attracted investment due to their practical value, becoming "potential stocks" in the eyes of investors.
BTC alert sounded: the win rate in September is only 40%, and if $110,000 support breaks, it may head to $100,000.
Bitcoin has been struggling lately – as of the time of writing, the price is $111,555, having dropped nearly 2.7% in the past 24 hours, facing the historical curse of a "high probability drop in September," compounded by whale sell-offs and ETF fund outflows, leading to a decline in investor confidence.
1. September "Curse": Since 2015, the win rate is only 40%, with an average drop of 2.5%.
Data released by chart platform TrendSpider on August 25 shows that since 2015, Bitcoin's September "win rate" (probability of rising) is only 40%, with an average return rate of -2.5%, making it a month that BTC holders dread, just like August.
In contrast, the win rates for February and October reach 82% and 90%, respectively, providing considerable returns. This suggests that in the coming month, BTC will likely continue to endure volatility.
2. $110,000 is the "line of life and death"; if broken, it may test $100,000.
Currently, investors are most focused on the $110,000 support level – if it cannot be maintained, it may trigger a deeper correction, even dropping below $100,000. Analyst BitBull also reminds that although BTC has rebounded from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA, equivalent to a commonly used support line), "the bottom may not have been reached yet."
He explained that historically BTC has often dropped below the 50-EMA, triggering a "stop-loss wave" (where leveraged traders are forced to close positions), pushing market sentiment to its lowest before starting to rise again. According to this pattern, BTC could drop to the $106,000 - $108,000 range next, "it will hurt in the short term, but this could be the last 'bear trap' before the next rise."
ETH is gaining strength: aiming for $5,500, supported by institutional funds and upgrades.
Unlike the lethargy of BTC, Ethereum (#ETH) is on a bullish path, not only having its own breakthrough targets but also igniting interest in the altcoins within its ecosystem.
1. Current price is $4,750; breaking $4,800 could push towards $5,500 (even $6,000).
As of the time of writing, the ETH price is close to $4,750, with technical indicators giving a clear bullish signal: as long as it breaks the resistance at $4,800, it can push towards $5,500, and some analysts even believe it could test $6,000.
Supporting ETH's upward momentum is also "institutional endorsement" – the influx of institutional funds into Ethereum ETFs offsets some recent selling pressure; additionally, the Pectra upgrade has enhanced ETH's scalability, and the usage of DeFi is expanding, making ETH a "hot commodity" in the eyes of long-term holders.
2. $4,200-$4,350 is the "safety cushion"; holding this level is crucial.
Traders are also closely watching ETH's support level: the $4,200-$4,350 range. As long as it holds here, ETH's upward trend will remain intact, providing stronger confidence for pushing towards $5,500.
ETH's ecosystem "dark horse": Remittix's presale raised $21 million, and Ethena is expected to perform well in 2026.
Smart money is not only hoarding ETH but also eyeing two altcoins within its ecosystem – Remittix (RTX) and Ethena (ENA). The former is poised to become the "best presale candidate of the year" by addressing cross-border payment pain points, while the latter stands out due to its DeFi integration.
1. Remittix (#RTX): Targeting the $19 trillion remittance market, the presale has raised $21 million.
Remittix has a clear goal: to solve the inefficiency of global cross-border remittances, a market worth $19 trillion with immense potential. Its presale is already booming: over 618 million tokens sold at a price of $0.0987, raising over $21 million, and it already has strong community support before officially launching.
More importantly, it "doesn't play around with illusions" and relies entirely on practical functions:
• The wallet beta version will be launched in the third quarter of this year (around September), allowing cryptocurrency transfers to bank accounts in over 30 countries within seconds and supporting over 40 currencies.
• The contract has passed CertiK audit (security guaranteed) and has announced listings on BitMart exchange (ensuring future liquidity).
• Unlike many presale projects that rely on hype, it focuses on "real applications". Some analysts say it can be compared to early XRP and even ranks among the best DeFi projects by 2025.
For investors looking to participate in the presale, now is the right time to enter as it is still in the early stages, and there is significant growth potential as functionalities are implemented.
2. Ethena (#ENA): Innovating in the DeFi space, bullish on 2026.
Ethena (ENA) is currently priced close to $0.70 and has carved out its path in the DeFi space – continuously expanding use cases through ecosystem integration. Analysts expect that by 2026, with further developments in DeFi, the price of ENA could see a significant increase.
Compared to established projects like Cardano, ENA has clear advantages: it acts faster, has clearer use cases, and avoids the "delayed implementation" dilemma, thus attracting more investors seeking "stable growth".
Article summary: Where are the opportunities in a divided market?
The logic of the current cryptocurrency market is clear: BTC is affected by seasonal and short-term selling pressures in September, needing to keep an eye on the $110,000 support level and remain cautious in the short term; ETH, on the other hand, is bullish due to institutional funds and technological upgrades, with $5,500 as a near target; Remittix and Ethena, as "new stars" in the ETH ecosystem, one addressing real pain points becoming a presale dark horse, and the other being long-term favored for its DeFi potential, have become new choices for smart money.
However, it should also be noted that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; whether waiting for ETH to reach $5,500 or participating in the Remittix presale, one must consider their risk tolerance and do their homework before making decisions.
