Last night, the crypto circle seemed calm, but on-chain data revealed a critical detail: 'whales' holding XRP (addresses holding over 100 million tokens) transferred nearly 5 billion XRP from mainstream exchanges like Coinbase and Binance into private key wallets within 12 hours.


This is not a random operation. In the cryptocurrency market, 'asset migration from exchanges' has always been significant. It's important to know that exchanges are the 'circulation pool' of the XRP secondary market. When whales transfer their chips from exchanges to their own controlled private key wallets, it essentially 'locks in chips': first, it avoids potential subsequent news (such as positive developments) affecting them through the exchange's 'automatic liquidation' or 'liquidity crunch'; second, and more importantly, it reduces the circulating supply in the market, effectively laying a foundation of chips for 'potential market movements' in advance.
I reviewed the historical data from the past five years. Similar 'whale withdrawal' phenomena occurred three months before the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in 2020 and before the SOL ecosystem explosion in 2022. Large funds always sense the market direction before retail investors.
Currently, the hottest topic in the community is the 'approaching approval' of the XRP spot ETF. Don't think this is empty talk: unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, XRP is supported by Ripple's cross-border payment ecosystem. After the US SEC relaxed its lawsuit against Ripple last year, traditional financial institutions' acceptance of XRP has been increasing. Once the ETF is approved, it means that traditional massive funds like pensions and mutual funds can easily enter the market, representing an opportunity for a 'significant leap' in XRP's valuation.
However, we need to temper our enthusiasm; watching the market shouldn't just rely on on-chain signals. Currently, XRP is still stuck in the 'sideways range' of $0.62-$0.70, having oscillated for more than three months, with trading volume continuing to shrink. This is not a 'stagnant market', but rather a 'strength accumulation phase': from a technical perspective, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) has risen from the oversold region (below 30) to 45, and the green bars of the MACD indicator are also shortening, indicating that bearish pressure is weakening, but bullish momentum has not yet reached its 'power point'.
Many retail investors may ask: how long will this 'quiet period' last? Where can XRP realistically go by 2026? I will break down two of the most likely scenarios, which are supported by logic, not just empty talk:

2026 'moonshot scenario': breaking previous highs to reach $5 requires two prerequisites.

First, the XRP spot ETF must be officially approved, as traditional funds entering the market could bring in an incremental capital of at least $20 billion to $30 billion, which is enough to push XRP's market cap from over $30 billion now to above $150 billion (corresponding to a price of over $5); second, Ripple's cross-border payment ecosystem needs to be implemented. Currently, it has partnered with over 100 banks globally. If it can establish a real-time settlement channel for 'USD - XRP - EUR' by 2025, the 'practical value' of XRP will be directly reflected in its price.

2026 'bear market scenario': dropping back to $0.30, with risks highlighted here.

First is the regulatory risk. If the SEC re-files against Ripple or if the US introduces restrictive policies on cryptocurrency ETFs, XRP would face direct pressure; second is the overall cryptocurrency market environment. If Bitcoin enters a bear market cycle in 2025, the entire altcoin sector will be dragged down, and XRP will find it hard to stand alone.


Now that the whales have taken action, what should retail investors do? Don't blindly follow the trend to buy the dip, and don't easily cut losses. For the next three months, I will update the on-chain chip distribution of XRP weekly (for example, whether whales are increasing or decreasing their positions) and the ETF approval progress; these are the key signals for assessing market conditions.
Click to follow me and get the latest 'breakthrough intelligence' on XRP to avoid missing out before the storm and to prevent falling into traps from false signals. Finally, I have a question for everyone: Do you think XRP will stabilize above $1 first, or will it drop back to $0.50 first?
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