The cryptocurrency world is sleepless tonight! Economist Peter Schiff's '75,000 Bitcoin death prophecy' is not just empty rhetoric, but a 'nuclear bomb' hanging over the entire market. As a cryptocurrency analyst who has gone through four bull and bear cycles and deeply studied on-chain data for five years, I smell a stronger 'liquidation bloodbath' from K-line fluctuations and wallet movements than during the LUNA collapse in 2022!
Schiff's 'killing move' is clearly aimed at MicroStrategy! The market knows this giant holds 176,000 bitcoins, but few have calculated its real death line: the surface holding cost is 79,000, but after adding multiple loan interests, the actual liquidation line has already dropped below 78,000, just a step away from 75,000! Once Bitcoin falls below 75,000, the pledged positions will trigger a chain liquidation, causing the long positions in the exchange to collapse like dominoes, with daily liquidation volume potentially exceeding 3 billion dollars!
Don't think that a 13% drop is already severe; this is just the 'appetizer.' The next three 'death spirals' are the real killing moves:
First, the 'collapse of faith' stampede. Currently, the long-short ratio in the perpetual contract market has surged to 1.8, with retail leveraged positions accounting for over 40%. If Bitcoin falls below the psychological barrier of 100,000, panic selling could instantly trigger the liquidation of long positions, with declines potentially expanding to 30% within hours, leading to countless retail investors being forcibly liquidated.
Second, the 'institutional reversal' hidden danger. The Grayscale GBTC premium rate has turned negative. Data from ETF custodians like Coinbase and BlackRock show that in the past 3 days, institutional selling volume has increased by 20% month-on-month. If these giants sense liquidation risk and collectively withdraw, the market could face a liquidity gap of over 2 billion dollars, and selling would become impossible.
Third, the 'Great Miner Exodus' impact. The total network hash rate has dropped from 600 EH/s to 580 EH/s, with 3 small and medium-sized mining farms already offline. The shutdown price for Bitcoin is about 65,000, and if it falls below 75,000, more miners will be forced to sell their mined coins to cover costs, leading to selling pressure that will worsen the market, creating a vicious cycle of 'decline - coin dumping - further decline.'
I spent three days analyzing Deribit options data and discovered a more terrifying signal: whales are quietly positioning for 'death options'! The 78,000 put options expiring on August 29 have seen their open interest surge from 500 contracts 24 hours ago to 2000 contracts, with strike prices densely concentrated in the 75,000 - 78,000 range. This is not a scale that retail investors can play with; it is clearly hedge funds betting on Schiff's prophecy coming true. What's even more alarming is that last night, a mysterious wallet transferred 23,000 bitcoins (worth over 2.5 billion dollars) to Binance. This address had a similar large transfer before the LUNA collapse in 2022, accurately bottoming ETH. This time, it is likely that 'Vulture Capital' is preparing to pick up cheap chips after the liquidation!
In the face of this potential 'wealth strangulation,' retail investors, don't panic; I have three practical routes for you:
The escapees: Immediately self-check your positions! First, look at the leverage ratio; the long positions in perpetual contracts should be reduced to below 1x. If BTC falls below 100,000, the spot position must be cut to below 30%. Next, check the risk rates of exchanges; for platforms like OKX and Binance, if the risk rate is below 120%, you must quickly replenish your margin to avoid forced liquidation.
The risk-takers: To catch the bottom, you must strictly control your positions! Place the first order in the 75,000 - 76,000 range, only entering with 20% of your position, adding 10% for every 3% drop, up to a maximum of 50%. The stop-loss line must be firmly set at 68,000, which is the neckline of the bull market peak in 2024. If broken, it means the end of the bull market, so do not harbor any illusions.
The tactical operators: Use hedging strategies to protect profits! In addition to shorting mining stocks like RIOT and MARA, you can also buy Bitcoin put options, such as purchasing a 70,000 put option expiring in September, with the current premium at only 5%. If BTC really drops to 70,000, the return could be 10 times, perfectly hedging spot losses.
Finally, let me say something from the heart: Schiff's warning is not 'alarmist,' but is the 'last escape window' for retail investors. Now is not the time to test courage; Bitcoin fell from 69,000 to 30,000 in 2021, and from 48,000 to 15,000 in 2022. In every liquidation wave, it was those blindly trying to catch the bottom who became 'human fuel.' Making money in a bull market relies on luck; surviving in a bear market relies on expertise. I spent a week compiling the 'MicroStrategy Pledge Risk Assessment' and 'Whale Wallet Movement List.' Tonight at 8 PM, I will dissect it in the live broadcast and keep an eye on Deribit options and BTC hash rate changes in real-time. If you want to know whether to escape or wait, or how to determine the bottom position, hit follow; don't miss the live broadcast! After all, in the cryptocurrency world, one misjudgment could mean half a year's or even a year's worth of profit down the drain. For professional matters, you must follow those who know the field!
