$ETH First, let's state the conclusion
✅ Trading Strategy (Short-term focused) (in a volume contraction situation)
• Aggressive: You can try light long positions around 4610-4630, targeting 4680-4700, with a stop loss below 4580.
• Conservative: Wait for a rebound to the 4680-4700 range before considering short positions, following the overall trend, with a stop loss above 4720.
• If you already have positions, it is recommended to reduce short positions for profit-taking and to hold light long positions for a rebound; do not heavily invest.
📉 Trend Analysis
1. Moving Averages EMA
• EMA(7) < EMA(25) < EMA(99), showing a bearish arrangement, with short to medium-term trends leaning bearish.
• The candlesticks have been consistently below EMA(7), indicating insufficient rebound strength.
2. RSI Oversold
• RSI(6) = 12.67, extremely oversold;
• RSI(12) = 24.62, also close to the oversold zone.
→ The short-term decline has been too rapid, and a technical rebound could happen at any moment.
3. MACD
• DIF = -27.24, DEA = -20.24, MACD histogram is expanding, indicating that the downward momentum still exists;
• However, the values are already low, nearing a short-term bottom area.
4. Trading Volume
• Recently, several bearish candlesticks have declined with increased volume, indicating selling pressure;
• However, in this situation, if bearish momentum weakens slightly, it may trigger a short-term rebound.
5. Key Price Levels
• Just recently bottomed around 4615, temporarily stopping the decline and rebounding;
• Upper pressure is at 4650-4700;
• Lower support is seen in the 4600-4580 range.