Author: The DeFi Investor
Translated by: Tim, PANews
Where are we in this bull market cycle?
It's always fascinating to observe how quickly market sentiment can change.
We just experienced: everyone on Crypto Twitter was optimistic about Ethereum, and overnight many turned bearish.
I also want to share some thoughts on the future direction of the market.
Let's zoom out and analyze the data.
First, let's review some historical trends; here is a chart showing Bitcoin's price performance in previous bull market cycles:
If you study past cycles, you will find that the timing of Bitcoin cycle peaks has been consistently aligned.
In 2021, Bitcoin peaked in November.
In 2017, Bitcoin peaked in December.
In 2013, Bitcoin peaked in December.
So far, every cycle peak has occurred in the fourth quarter of the second year after the halving (2013, 2017, 2021, and now 2025).
Another interesting phenomenon is that September is usually the weakest month for Bitcoin, while October has historically been one of the strongest months.
Even though many people are panicking due to the recent crash, as you can see, it is not uncommon for the market to crash around September (the end of the third quarter).
If there is anything to be said, it is that it is consistent with what has happened in the past.
Does this mean that this cycle will be exactly the same as previous cycles? Not necessarily. While history does not repeat itself, it tends to be remarkably similar.
Regarding September, given what happened in previous cycles, I have mixed feelings, but I believe that the fourth quarter will be a good quarter for cryptocurrency, as the final stages of every bull market cycle have historically been very strong in terms of returns.
Aside from seasonal factors, there are other factors that lead me to believe that the fourth quarter will rise.
Interest rate cuts are coming (this time it's real).
Now let's set aside cryptocurrency for a moment: the macroeconomics are important.
According to Polymarket's predictions, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September is 64%. Why is this significant?
Because when central banks lower interest rates, borrowing costs become lower. The decline in bond yields also prompts investors to shift to riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.
Historically, significant interest rate cuts are beneficial for risk assets.
Crypto treasury companies are continuously purchasing large amounts of cryptocurrency.
The volume of funds is truly astonishing.
According to data from www.strategicethreserve.xyz, last week, crypto treasury companies purchased over 532,000 ETH (worth over $2 billion at current value).
Please note that staking Ethereum ETFs have not yet been approved.
Source: www.strategicethreserve.xyz
A weekly buy of $2 billion is a huge positive for ETH and altcoins.
Crypto treasury companies will eventually run out of funds, but given the current inflow of capital, it is hard for me to believe that the peak of this bull market has already arrived.
Another reason I believe the cycle peak has not yet arrived is as follows:
Among common topping signals, few reach this level.
Recently, the search volume for 'cryptocurrency' has reached a four-year high, and Jim Cramer has turned bullish, which is why I took some profits earlier this week.
But beyond that, the other 'important signals' I mentioned last week have not been triggered.
For example, Coinbase's app store ranking is still over 200. In the previous cycle, it was the top-ranked app in the app store.
The Fear and Greed Index is also showing a healthy state. Although there has been a recent market rebound, it has not yet reached an irrationally euphoric state. However, taking Ethereum as an example, its price has increased significantly in the past few weeks, and a short-term pullback is completely normal.
Unless this is the worst cycle in history, I do not think the bull market feast is over.
So, how should I prepare for the future?
As stated below, the best buying opportunity after a Bitcoin halving has historically been in late September of the following year (the most recent Bitcoin halving occurred in 2024), as October is usually an excellent month for Bitcoin performance.
This is exactly what I plan to do.
According to market patterns in late September, if there is a significant decline, I will pick up a few popular tokens at that time to increase my position ahead of the fourth quarter.
Otherwise, I would just continue to hold my current position.
If everything goes as expected, I will gradually take profits throughout the fourth quarter and significantly reduce my cryptocurrency holdings before the end of the year.
This is my current plan.
However, keep in mind this is a game of probabilities, and many variables may come into play in the coming months. As investors and traders, our duty is to adjust our strategies in a timely manner based on new circumstances.
We can only guess, so my advice is to develop your own plan based on your expectations.
But regardless of what you think will happen in the coming months, whatever your plan is, make sure that risk management remains one of your top priorities.
I have said this many times: the hardest part is not making money, but keeping the money you have made.
(The above content is an excerpt and reprint authorized by partner PANews, original link)
"How to capture the last 'copper coin' of the bull market? Buy the dip in September and gradually unload in Q4". This article was first published on (Blockchain KOL).
