The market progress is slower than my expectations at the beginning of the month. In fact, at the beginning of the month, the decision for a rate cut in September was basically set, but over the past half month, there has been a lot of expectation management. Fortunately, after yesterday's meeting, the discussion about rate cuts has finally returned to whether it will be 25BP or 50BP in September, and whether there will be further cuts in October and December.

I will boldly predict that this year there will be at least a 75BP cut, with a high probability of a 100BP cut. The pattern will be either 25-25-25 or 50-25-25, with a small probability of 25-25 (a total of 50BP). Let's wait and see.