From a long-term perspective, the bull market is definitely not over. Old Biden has a saying: "You can't say it's a bull market only when Bitcoin is rising."

There is often an inverse relationship between Bitcoin and the US dollar index: when the dollar is strong, Bitcoin is weak; when the dollar is weak, Bitcoin is strong.

2017 Bull Market: The dollar index fell from 103 to below 90, while Bitcoin rose from $1,000 to nearly $20,000 during the same period.

2020–2021 Bull Market: After the pandemic, the dollar index fell from 103 to 90, and Bitcoin rose from over $10,000 to $69,000.

2022 Bear Market: The Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes led the dollar index to reach a new 20-year high (114), and Bitcoin fell below $20,000.

Strong Dollar Cycle (Fed interest rate hikes, global capital flows back to the US): Emerging markets experience capital outflows, risk assets are under pressure, and Bitcoin often weakens.

Weak Dollar Cycle (Fed interest rate cuts, dollar depreciation): Global capital seeks yield opportunities, liquidity floods the market, and Bitcoin, gold, and US stocks often strengthen simultaneously.

Currently, the Fed is in the process of transitioning from tightening to easing, the dollar index is at a relatively high level but has entered a volatile downward range, which is a medium to long-term positive for Bitcoin.