Quick summary
Main reason: Fed's speech (Powell) at Jackson Hole hinted at early rate cuts → “risk-on” sentiment surged; along with institutional/ETF news and on-chain activity (whales moving funds off exchanges / accumulating, token buybacks) pushing BTC/ETH and many altcoins up strongly since last night (~22:00 VN time).
1. Powell “dovish hint” — triggers risk sentiment: Powell mentions factors allowing the market to expect rate cuts (lower borrowing costs) — this scenario reduces real yields, weakens USD, capital flows into risk assets, with crypto benefiting significantly. Stock markets and crypto-related stocks also rose immediately after — synchronized reaction.
2. Institutional money flow & ETF + regulatory news: Signs continue to be spot-ETF flows and related product proposals (e.g., ETF proposals/intentions for Solana…) leading to larger liquidity ranges and expectations of traditional investment demand into crypto increasing. This is a “fundamental” driver alongside macro news.
3. On-chain / whale activity — reducing exchange supply: Noting large transfers out of exchanges (e.g., over 1,000 BTC withdrawn from Binance) along with whale accumulation moves and token buyback reports (Chainlink) — when supply on exchanges decreases + demand increases → strong price reactions. This is the basic technical factor causing rapid volatility.
4. Technical scenario & short-squeeze: After dovish macro news opens, many short positions get liquidated, creating a rapid increase (momentum) — this causes altcoins to be more sensitive and spike stronger than BTC as capital quickly rotates into tokens with moderate liquidity.
Multi-timeframe technical analysis (focusing: BTC, ETH) — short & focused
General principle: Spot is only recommended when support/technical is clear. Futures avoid opening Long if the price has increased >3% from the nearest low unless breakout confirmation. Currently, BTC/ETH have increased significantly from the intraday low, so caution is needed. (Price data sourced from live source at the beginning of the article.)
BTC (116,891 USD)
• 15m: strong momentum, many bullish candles — but overbought short-term.
• 1h: breakout → but wide intraday range (low 111,761 → high 117,327). Price has increased >3% from the intraday low → do not open new Long Futures without clear 1h breakout.
• 4h: short-medium term trend leans bullish but has psychological resistance around 118–120k.
• 1d: still in an uptrend after the previous low, but needs follow-through (volume).
Technical conclusion: short-term continues to have pullback risks; buying opportunities for Spot in deeper retest areas; Futures only trade breakout/mean-reversion with short targets.
ETH (4,822 USD)
• 15m: strong spike — overbought; many short positions got liquidated.
• 1h: has set intraday ATH ~4,879 → breakout/retreat action. Due to the significant increase from the intraday low → do not recommend new Long Futures unless break + close 1h above the range of 4,900–5,000.
• 4h/1d: strong trend due to large capital flows + ETF/institutional narrative; but deep pullback is very likely (gradual buying opportunity for Spot).
Action proposal — Spot & Futures:
Note: This is a short to medium-term strategy, not encouraging all-in. Maintain strict risk management: each Futures order risk max 0.5–1% of capital, total open risk ≤2% of the account.
A. Spot (For medium/long-term investors or DCA)
• BTC — Controlled DCA strategy:
• Gradual buying: split into 3 parts → 115,000 (30%), 112,000 (40%), 108,000 (30%).
• SL (short swing perspective): if Daily closes < 104,700 → cut (high risk).
• Mid-term target TP: 130k–150k (depending on macro developments).
• Probability of dovish scenario continuing in 72h: ~60% (based on current market reaction).
• ETH — DCA according to corrective rhythms:
• Gradual buying: 4,500 (30%), 4,200 (40%), 3,800–3,600 (30%).
• SL (swing): close Daily < 3,600 → consider reducing position size.
• Mid-term TP: 5,500–6,500 if ETF flows/institutional signals continue.
• Probability of continuing to rise short-term: ~55–65% if macro remains dovish.
• Altcoins with catalysts (e.g., LINK, SOL): prioritize buying retests after breakout; with LINK consider buying when retesting the new support level due to buyback signal. (Chainlink buyback + on-chain accumulation support).
B. Futures (scalp / breakout rules — discipline)
• General principle: avoid opening Long if the price has increased >3% from the corresponding timeframe low (applicable). Only trade: (1) confirmed breakout with increased volume, or (2) mean-reversion when price retests level + structure confirmation.
• BTC — Specific trading scenario:
• Long (only when breakout is confirmed): entry > 118,500 (close 1h above the range) → SL 116,500 → TP 1:1.5 (≈120.8k), if volume confirms.
• Short (reverse case): entry < 114,800 (1h breakdown) → SL 116,800 → TP 112,000 → 110,000.
• Probability: breakout continues after Powell ~40–55% (high volatility).
• ETH — Specific trading scenario:
• Long (only breakout): entry > 4,950–5,000 (close 1h) → SL 4,700 → TP 1:1.5 (~5,400).
• Short (if exhaustion): entry < 4,300 (1h close) → SL 4,700 → TP 4,000 → 3,800.
• Probability: high volatility; shorts could be profitable if the market mean-reverts after the spike.
Concise action checklist (applicable in 24–72h)
1. Reduce leverage immediately — max 3–5x (depending on risk management); avoid holding leverage overnight without clear reason.
2. Do not open Long Futures “blindly” when the price has increased >3% from the intraday low — wait for 1h/4h breakout confirmation. (Rule you requested).
3. Automate SL/TP for all orders; set max risk per order ≤1% of capital, total ≤2%.
4. Altcoin: if BTC shows strong volatility, all altcoin analysis may become invalid → prioritize cash or hold blue-chip tokens (ETH, BTC).
5. Monitor on-chain + ETF flows: if withdrawals from exchanges continue + positive ETF inflows → prioritize Spot accumulation; if cash flow weakens or Fed news reverses → shift to cash.
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Conclusion:
• Main reason for the increase: Powell hinted at rate cuts → risk-on sentiment; followed by institutional/ETF behavior and on-chain activity (whales + buybacks) pushing prices up strongly since last night.
• Effective strategy: Spot — controlled DCA into retest areas; Futures — only trade breakout/mean-reversion with tight SL, limit leverage; prioritize risk management over finding “one large trade.”
• Warning: Macroeconomic news can reverse very quickly (Fed might say something different at the last minute) → strong volatility, liquidation easily occurs.