Powell's Jackson Hole Speech Highlights - Opening the Door for September Interest Rate Cut, Announcing Adjustment to Monetary Policy Framework

1. Interest Rate Guidance: Powell opens the door for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, stating that changes in the baseline outlook and risk balance may require us to adjust our policy stance.

2. Labor Market: The labor market remains close to full employment levels. The balance in the labor market stems from a significant slowdown on both the supply and demand sides, indicating that the risk of job losses is increasing.

3. Inflation Outlook: Short-term inflation risks are tilted to the upside. Long-term inflation expectations, based on market and survey indicators, seem to remain stable. A one-time increase in price levels will not be allowed to evolve into a persistent inflation problem.

4. Tariff Impact: The impact of tariffs on consumer prices has now become clear, and this impact is expected to continue to accumulate in the coming months, although the specific timing and magnitude still carry a high degree of uncertainty. The impact of tariffs will be relatively short-lived, representing a one-time change in price levels.

5. Framework Adjustment: The Federal Reserve has adopted a new policy framework, removing the statement about pursuing "inflation averaging 2% over the long term" and the statement regarding basing employment decisions on assessments of "the gap from maximum employment levels."

6. Market Impact: After Powell's speech, traders increased bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Spot gold continued to rise, reporting at USD/ounce at the time of publication. The US dollar index fell, with non-US currencies like the Japanese yen and Australian dollar rising over 1%; US Treasury yields fell; the three major US stock indices rose; Bitcoin surpassed USD 116,000 per coin. $BTC $ETH $SOL #杰克逊霍尔会议 #美国初请失业金人数 #BNB创新高