On 25/08/23, Powell's speech was dovish; BTC returned to 117000, and Ethereum broke through 4600.
Powell's speech was dovish, and the probability of a rate cut in September has risen to 89%. Old Powell stated that economic risks provide more reasons for a rate cut. Therefore, on the 5th-6th, the gentleman reminded that there is no need to always watch whether a rate cut will happen in the short term. The probability of a rate cut is relatively high in September-October. The logic the gentleman sees is also very simple: tariff impacts have a lagging effect, and economic recession is intensifying. Powell must use the tool of rate cuts effectively; otherwise, the effect will be minimal...
The movement of the US stock market is basically consistent with the prediction on the 19th, which is a pullback to above August 1 before rebounding. After old Powell's speech, Ethereum rebounded strongly, rising by 10%. As of the publication, it broke through the previous high, reaching 4834. Altcoins rebounded well, and Bitcoin briefly broke through to 117200; the contract data at 118000 was also under pressure from the BOLL middle track. However, the second test of the bottom of the box, which appeared to break down, has basically met expectations.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin's lowest spike was 111684, testing the support line around 112000 again, which seems to be effective support for now. The daily MACD shows potential bottom divergence, and trading volume has slightly increased. Currently, it is under pressure from the BOLL middle track, but the price is also above 114700 and 115700.
On the 4-hour chart, the gentleman has been reminding that a descending wedge has formed, and we have been waiting for its breakout. Accompanied by Powell's speech, it directly surged by around 4000 points, breaking through the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.382. The bottom of the daily box has held as support, but it needs to stand above 118600 to remove risks and continue to reach new highs. For now, the market looks like it still needs to grind upwards.
Support: 111684 to 114700
Pressure: 118600 to 121000 to 125000
Ethereum
Ethereum's rebound is very strong. After old Powell's speech, it directly surged by 10%. After the market opened on the 23rd, the probability of breaking through the previous high near 4788 is very high. The next challenge will be the peak of the last bull market at 4868. Once it breaks through, the first target is the midpoint of 5600, with the target of 6700 being the gentleman's previous predicted level.
In terms of weekly charts, as mentioned by the gentleman before, it is a third wave if viewed from the last bull market, or a fifth wave if viewed from historical trends. The proportional target from 1385 to 4100 points to 6700. As for the external talk about reaching 15,000 or 20,000 for Ethereum, that will be discussed later. Do not FOMO; act according to the trend. The Ethereum bull market does not indicate a top, and one should not short in a bull market.
Support: 4660 to 4788
Pressure: 5600 to 6700
