Will Musk's move completely change the landscape of $DOGE ? Miners and retail investors are already arguing furiously!
Dogecoin's reforms aim to strike a balance between growth and scarcity. The core issue is the conflict between technological upgrades and profit distribution.
Musk's team wants to change the code to cut the annual number of newly added tokens in half and implement a burn mechanism. In theory, this would reduce the use of DOGE and turn it into a deflationary coin, but implementation is difficult. Miners might fall out over a $1.2 billion annual loss in revenue and even refuse to upgrade the system en masse. The chain itself is weak and relies on a cross-chain bridge, but that bridge has a vulnerability rate three times the industry average, posing a significant security risk. Even more problematic, retail investors have already sold 2.3 billion coins, highlighting the internal divisions within the community.
Whether the reforms will succeed depends crucially on the Grayscale ETF approval results in October and the hash rate support from mining pools. If successful, DOGE could rise to $0.69, becoming the first deflationary meme coin with a market capitalization exceeding $100 billion. If unsuccessful, it could plummet to $0.16, failing to even cover miner costs.
In the short term, we recommend closely monitoring these two signals. Retail investors can buy small amounts around 0.24, but they must hedge their risk using instruments like options. Furthermore, we must guard against two black swan events: if the SEC determines that DOGE is a security, the fine could exceed $5 billion; and the Qubic hashing alliance could launch an attack. Don't put all your money in one place.
When should you enter and exit? How to capitalize on strong coins? What's the right take-profit point? Auntie Shisan always tells her fans on Shequn: Just follow my thinking and execute what I say, and you'll definitely reap the rewards!
