Yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum confirmed the bottom range after another dip, and the bottoming trend is basically over. Next, we will welcome a rebound and a second bottom test, starting to operate in the bottom range, which basically confirms that around 111,900 is the first bottom. The bottoming process will still require some time, and the arrival of the second bottom will be the best opportunity to buy the dip. Let's wait quietly together with Sponge for the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at 22:00 tonight; this wave of plummet will be a great opportunity for us to aim for wealth through bottom buying!
BTC
BTC slightly broke 112,000, stopping the decline after the second test of the 112K range. The weekly MACD for BTC is about to form a death cross, and a bearish engulfing pattern has appeared on the daily chart, suggesting that further adjustment may be needed in the future. However, this does not necessarily mean a continued decline, as the current price is at a key support level and may still trigger a rebound.
Bitcoin has now reached a key turning point; the downward trend line above is gradually approaching, and the previous low of 111,900 is not far away. Today, Bitcoin must give direction:
(1) If Bitcoin breaks through strongly and increases in volume, after a pullback confirmation, you can follow up and go long;
(2) If it is a false breakout or falls back directly, the price is likely to continue to weaken.
(3) Sponge personally believes that a “dead cat bounce” is more likely to occur, which is a short-term rebound, with a target roughly rising from 111,900 back to 120,000 after breaking. If there is no rebound and it directly breaks down, then decisively short.
Short-term support points: EMA30 is around 111,400, followed by weak support near the 110,000 mark, and the 2-day EMA52 is at 110,295. If these two positions are broken, the next support level is about 107,450, and it is recommended to buy low near the support level. The closer it gets to the 110,000 mark, the less suitable it is to chase shorts.
ETH
Ethereum's overall performance is slightly stronger than Bitcoin's, but constrained by BTC's movements, it is currently unable to break out independently, with a fluctuation range between 4100-4350.
Ethereum's candlestick chart is about to break the 7-day line; the last time ETH broke the 7-day line, it surged significantly.
It is expected that after the speech ends, as long as it meets expectations, ETH is likely to rise significantly, with the 7-day line position at 4350. Still insisting on being bullish!
(1) If it breaks 4350, ETH may continue to rise above 4550;
(2) Around 4600 is a key resistance level, suitable for shorting;
(3) The daily support below is in the range of 3890-4100, which is relatively high in terms of cost-performance for buying.
Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow of $288 million yesterday, ending four consecutive trading days of net outflow, indicating that buying interest in the Ethereum ETF has recovered, making a short-term upward breakthrough for Ethereum more likely.
Strategy: Buy low around 4200, 4100, 4060.
Altcoins
OKB
OKB broke new highs again today, 5.8 times in a week! Sponge recommended everyone to buy in when it was just above 100u, continuously emphasizing that OKB can still rise, and can be bought on pullbacks. Fans who followed Sponge’s layout for OKB have made a fortune!
OKB is inevitably going to experience a short-term pullback and adjustment; after the price comes down, one should be bold to buy in. Currently, there is a very obvious problem with the current OKB market: it is overheated. There is excessive external capital, and retail investors are rushing in too aggressively. This will disrupt the original plan of the main trader.
If OKB is to achieve a larger increase and higher targets, it will definitely wash out positions and gather chips to ensure control over the chips, and then move towards higher targets.
Let me talk about my expectations for escaping from OKB:
First range: around $400-500, which is a relatively reasonable price range, with a market cap of about $10 billion. OKB will no longer just be the token of the OK platform in the future; its core valuation is roughly in this range.
Second range: around $1,000-2,000. If you want to see this range, you need to bet on Lao Xu's strategic layout. Currently, Lao Xu's ability to control funds can fully support such operations, with favorable timing, location, and people.
DOGSHIT: Yesterday, Sponge recommended DOGSHIT in an article, successfully picking up the 50x big dog DOGSHIT, at that time the private placement participated at 6u, now valued at 300u, it has increased fifty times, which is so comfortable. The OKB chain is about to explode completely, also offering the greatest opportunity, if you want to ambush the next 50x big dog, hurry up to join the group!
FISH: Currently, both FISH and DOGSHIT belong to dividend coins. DOGSHIT has a market cap of five million, while FISH is just at one million, which can be played with a small position.
EIGEN: Current price 1.34, planning to buy more if it drops, holding time will be a bit longer, optimistic about Ethereum reaching new highs sooner or later, so if staking is the way, then buy this, similar reasoning to the previously recommended $ENA, which is strongly correlated with ETH, and the bottom doesn’t increase much.
Tonight's market shift
At 22:00 Beijing time tonight, there will be a speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Banking Conference, looking for signals regarding the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate outlook. This year will be Powell's last time participating in this central banking event in his capacity as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, as his term will end next year. Brothers! It's time again for the 'one-sentence market determines life and death'!
In Sponge's view, there will definitely be interest rate cuts in September. Various voices are now coming out, and the main purpose is to create chaos, ultimately still following the old path of expectation management. Remember, it was similar before last year's rate cuts, manipulating expectations repeatedly, throwing smoke bombs, exhausting emotions, until the actual rate cuts arrived. However, this is actually a good thing; it can create volatility, providing opportunities for those who truly see the situation clearly.
