Since we judged that $ETH peaked on August 15, and on August 18, we suggested that $BTC would return to the previous accumulation range near 110,500 to 111,500, market participants are generally worried that BTC has peaked and entered a bear market. The question of whether the peak has been reached cannot be solved by wave theory; it must be broken down using our level waves to see the truth. Refer to the following four screenshots:
1. The BTC weekly chart is indeed operating in the fifth wave. Once the rise that started from 74,508 is completed, this round of the bull market will see a peak. But has the fifth wave completed? We need to break it down using its secondary three-day line.
2. It is obvious that the three-day line has only completed the first wave, and we are currently judging that it is undergoing a second wave correction. Why do we say this? We continue to break it down using the secondary daily line of the three-day line.
3. The daily level clearly indicates that five waves have been completed. Therefore, the first wave of the three-day line has been completed, and the three-day line has begun a second wave correction. The second wave, divided into three segments ABC, will continue to rise after the correction is complete, and the correction area is the yellow box marked in our previous post, near 110,500 to 111,500.
Summary: The second round of the bull market for BTC is not over yet, but considering that it could collapse at any moment above 150,000, from a speculative perspective, the risk-reward ratio for long-term holding is too small. Therefore, I will only hold valuable major altcoins. The market share of BTC, regardless of the size or level of the peak, is continuously decreasing, which is a sign of the explosive season for altcoins. However, considering the large number of junk coins in this round of the bull market, it is difficult to see the widespread rise like in the previous two bull markets. Thus, we have mainly held valuable large coins like $XRP, LINK, LTC, etc. I believe these valuable large coins that have survived at least two rounds of bull market tests will shine in this round of the bull market. We don't need the ones with the biggest increase; we only need the ones that make money most steadily to ensure a smooth profit-taking after the peak of this bull market.
At the same time, BTC has lost its significance as a reference for the overall market index. Therefore, the valuable altcoins we often mention can be repurchased now, having advised to reduce positions before the current minimum point to prevent missing out. Because the downside space for BTC is already limited. Whether it goes sideways or rises, valuable altcoins will rise significantly, and only when BTC is falling will the valuable altcoins slightly decline.
