#BTC Bitcoin Monthly Performance Analysis: Will October See a Strong Rebound After the 'September Curse'?
According to the latest statistical report from Bitwise Asset Management, a dataset spanning 15 years (from August 2010 to June 2025) reveals a striking seasonal characteristic of Bitcoin: September is the 'traditional nightmare month' for Bitcoin investors.
📊 Chart Highlights Analysis
1. September Low (-4.68%): Historical Data Confirms the Old Saying in the Cryptocurrency Market: 'Sell in September, You Won't Lose Much.' This Is the Only Month with an Average Negative Return.
2. Year-End Carnival:
- Strong Comeback in October (+27.30%): Significant Market Recovery After September's Lull
- November Tops the Year (+38.50%): Traditionally the Strongest Up Month, Average Return Exceeds 38%
3. Highlights of the First Half:
- April Explosion (+32.85%): Second Only to November's Performance
- May Continuation (+22.81%): Continuation of Spring Market Trends
🤔 Why Does the 'September Curse' Exist?
Hidden Market Logic Behind Historical Patterns:
- Seasonal Effect Impact: The 'September Effect' in Traditional Markets in Europe and America (Increased Market Volatility)
- Tax Cycle Disruptions: Cash Demand Triggered by Tax Settlements at the End of Q3 in Some Regions
- Market Sentiment Cycle: Release of Funds Observation After the Summer Off-Season
📈 Key Insight: Timing the Layout Before Dawn
1. Historical Experience: Data from the Past 15 Years Shows October and November Have Over 80% Rebound Probability
2. Window Forecast: Average Return in August Only 0.23%, Volatile Market May Signal Bottom Formation
3. Risk Warning: «'Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Results' (Data Source Note)»
🌠 Professional Insight
Despite Significant Seasonal Patterns, Caution Required for 2025:
- Intensified Impact of Macroeconomic Environment: Federal Reserve Policy Shift, Changes in Global Liquidity
- New Variables Emerge: Spot ETF Fund Flows, On-Chain Staking Rate Surpassing 60%
- Technical Support: Key EMA Moving Averages in Bullish Alignment, but Beware of Black Swan Events
Wise investors identify opportunities in the changing seasons. While the market slumbers in the September winter, seasoned investors begin to sow for the rebound after October's awakening. History may not repeat, but it often resonates - this seasonal pattern is the time compass gifted to us by the market.
