Good morning, everyone. Currently, BTC is consolidating around $113,000. The market seems calm, but there are undercurrents. The recent core reasons for the 'doge trader' washing out and some large holders cutting losses are essentially waiting for a clear signal from the Federal Reserve about interest rate cuts—some believe cuts are hopeless, while others firmly believe easing is coming. With divergence between bulls and bears, large capital is holding cash and observing, ready to strategize once the signal is clear.
1. Core contradiction: The game of expectations around Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
The current global market focus is on tonight's 22:00 speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which will directly affect the market direction: the market will judge whether cuts will start in September and whether high interest rate policies will be maintained in the future based on his statements.
The game around interest rate cuts has already become extremely intense:
• External pressure is clear: Trump continues to pressure the Federal Reserve to adopt more easing policies to support the economy; candidates for Federal Reserve Chairman have also publicly called for interest rate cuts.
• Internal stance is firm: Current Federal Reserve officials remain cautious about interest rate cuts and have not released clear easing signals, which has become the biggest uncertainty in the current market.
2. Key signal: Large holder positions reveal signs of reversal.
From on-chain data, Huang Licheng currently holds BTC long positions worth $140 million, with an unrealized loss of $9.81 million. Historical market patterns show that when such leading investors experience significant unrealized losses or even margin calls, it often indicates that market sentiment has reached an extreme, increasing the probability of a market reversal.
3. Tonight's market projection: Probability analysis of three scenarios.
Based on current market expectations, there may be three scenarios after Powell's speech, corresponding to different market directions:
1. Clear signal of interest rate cuts (20% probability): If Powell directly signals that 'cuts will start in September', it will constitute a significant positive, and BTC is expected to sound the horn for a counterattack, starting a new round of increase.
2. Release of easing expectations (50% probability): If he states 'now is not the right time for cuts, but we will consider easing in the future', although no specific timing is given, it sends a positive signal, similarly benefiting the market and helping BTC stabilize and rebound.
3. Strengthening hawkish stance (30% probability): If there is no indication of interest rate cuts at all, and even a reaffirmation of the hawkish stance of 'maintaining high interest rates', market sentiment will again come under pressure, and BTC may face a new round of decline.
4. Operational advice: Respond rationally, accumulate in portions.
From a rational perspective, it is not the time to exit the market; instead, it is an opportunity to gradually accumulate during the consolidation phase—there is no need to pursue 'precisely buying at the lowest point', but rather to build positions in portions to reduce risk, patiently waiting for the market reversal after the Federal Reserve's signal is released.
Tonight's speech is a 'watershed' for the short-term market. It is recommended that everyone pay close attention and adjust strategies accordingly once the situation becomes clearer, to avoid being misled by short-term volatility.
