Jackson Hole Conference Powell's Speech Interpretation: Reasons for Market Surge and Future Outlook

1. Core Drivers of Short-Term Market Surge

1. Interest Rate Cut Signal Released, Liquidity Expectations Boosted: Powell hinted at a rate cut in September during his speech, releasing a clear dovish signal. Historical data shows that speeches at the Jackson Hole Conference have often marked significant turning points in the market, and when the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish stance, it often drives mainstream assets and the crypto market to rise in tandem. The market interprets the September rate cut as the beginning of monetary policy easing, and this expectation has propelled capital towards high-risk assets, becoming a key driver of this price surge.

2. Weakening Dollar Combined with Fund Flow Shift: Powell's dovish statement directly led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a weakening of the dollar index, triggering some dollar funds to flee. Against this backdrop, the relatively attractive nature of cash flow-less crypto assets has increased, while also boosting the stock market, forming a "weak dollar, strong risk assets" linkage effect, which is reflected in the #Crypto Concept US Stocks Rise# logic.

3. Positive Resonance Within the Crypto Market: In addition to macro policy signals, the crypto market itself has also welcomed driving factors. After Powell released easing expectations, crypto ETFs and mainstream fund inflows received significant boosts, with many crypto projects seeing increased active fund sizes; furthermore, many market participants had previously maintained a wait-and-see attitude, and after the speech, a large number of leveraged positions triggered forced liquidations, further amplifying short-term upward momentum and driving prices sharply higher.

2. Future Market Trends: Key Variables for Bullish and Bearish Outlooks

• Bullish Logic: If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as expected in September, the continued easing monetary policy will inject liquidity into the market, the trend of a weakening dollar may persist, and the attractiveness of crypto assets and risk assets is expected to further increase; at the same time, if the continuous inflow of crypto ETF funds forms a trend, it will provide long-term support for the market.

• Bearish Risks: Attention must be paid to the risk of "disproving" rate cut expectations—if subsequent U.S. inflation data rebounds and the job market is stronger than expected, the Federal Reserve may delay or reduce the magnitude of rate cuts, leading to a reversal of market liquidity expectations; additionally, the crypto market has seen significant short-term gains, and if there is a lack of sustained fund inflows, it may face retracement pressure from profit-taking. $BTC $XRP #ETH创历史新高 #以太坊生态山寨币普涨 #BNB创新高