1. News dominates short-term fluctuations
As marked in the red box in the figure, two sudden news events directly ignited the market:
23:28 Federal Reserve hawkish: Officials stated 'not supporting a rate cut in September', causing a slight drop in the coin price (market worries about liquidity tightening).
01:37 Middle East ceasefire agreement: Geopolitical risk has eased, risk appetite for funds has increased, and ETH surged accordingly.
Conclusion: Recently, ETH is extremely sensitive to news; any sudden news (especially macro/geopolitical) may trigger sharp rises and falls.
2. Focus on key positions
Resistance level 4380: Close to the upper Bollinger Band (4308); if broken, it may open up upward space.
Key level 4220: Near the current price, it is both a previous low and the support of the Bollinger Band middle track; if broken, it may retest the strong support at 4060.
MACD bottom divergence prototype: Although DIF and DEA are still below the zero axis, the MACD histogram (-3.15) has contracted compared to the previous value, indicating a weakening of downward momentum.
3. RSI suggests oversold rebound opportunities
RSI1 (6 periods) only 15.59: Seriously oversold, short-term has technical rebound demand.
RSI2/3 (12/24 periods) about 49: Medium to long-term momentum is neutral, direction is to be chosen.
4. Today's operational thoughts
If it stabilizes above 4220: You can try a small long position, targeting 4380 (need to be accompanied by positive news).
If it breaks below 4220: It may revisit the 4060 support, short-term avoid counter-trend bottom fishing.
Response to sudden news: Beware of bearish comments similar to those of the Federal Reserve (especially during U.S. stock market opening hours); positive news related to ceasefire should be prioritized for long positions.
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