Tonight at 10 PM, all eyes in the global financial circle will be on the Jackson Hole annual meeting. This meeting is particularly crucial because it is close to the September Federal Reserve meeting that will decide whether to adjust interest rates, and it is likely to clarify 'whether or not to cut rates.' Currently, most people in the market believe that there is a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, and if Fed Chairman Powell hints at easing policy in his speech, this expectation of a rate cut will be basically secured. Some previous policies have already laid the groundwork for this 'easing expectation.'
Looking back at the performance of the crypto market after the Jackson Hole annual meeting in recent years, 'more ups than downs' is not just a summary of historical data; it can also provide investors with some emotional support during this phase of market fluctuations.
Recently, the crypto market has corrected, and the correlation with the U.S. stock market is particularly evident. The Nasdaq index has fallen from a high of 21,800 points to 21,100 points, and just as it created a new high on the daily chart, it turned down. The corrections in Bitcoin and Ethereum are a direct reflection of this correlation. Especially for Ethereum, the new funds for this rise mainly came from the U.S. stock market, so its correction is quite normal. It should be noted that the correction in Ethereum is slightly larger than that in Bitcoin, mainly because it had risen significantly earlier, accumulating a lot of profitable chips; from the perspective of market value and volatility matching logic, the current volatility range is still within a reasonable range.
However, it must be viewed rationally: unless the meeting clearly provides a 'specific timeline for rate cuts,' the short-term impact on the market may be limited. After all, there is still nearly a month until the interest rate meeting on September 16-17, and the changes in macroeconomic conditions and capital flows during this period could bring variables, so vigilance is necessary.
Returning to the specific market situation, the market is currently in a 'post-correction consolidation' phase: Bitcoin is temporarily holding the key support level of 112,000 points, while Ethereum is fluctuating around 4,200 points. Considering the current adjustment rhythm of the U.S. stock market, the risk of further breaking below the support level is relatively low; what the market needs now is to wait for 'factors that can trigger a new round of rising.'
From the perspective of capital logic, since this rise in Ethereum is driven by U.S. stock market funds, its future movements are likely to continue to correlate with the U.S. stock market. More critically, Ethereum currently has a 'micro-strategy-like' layout, in simple terms, institutional funds are continuously increasing their holdings, which is different from other currencies – this is real long-term investment, especially as top institutions operate under a 'long-term holding' strategy similar to Bitcoin. This funding support also gives Ethereum a stronger ability to withstand risks.
Finally, I want to share some views that are not limited to short-term market conditions: the cryptocurrency market is indeed filled with speculative sentiment, but the more lively it gets, the more one must adhere to the bottom line of 'value investing.' For instance, if a celebrity launched a new coin yesterday, blindly buying such a coin without technical support and relying solely on hype will likely lead to losses; its subsequent weak performance could have been anticipated.
Finding currencies with 'valuable support' is never an empty talk. Taking Ethereum as an example, only by truly understanding its technical logic and ecological value can one remain rational during market fluctuations and not be driven to anxiety and impatience by short-term speculative mentality. As for currencies like OKB, which have recently gained popularity and risen significantly in the short term, if you have already made money, it might be better to secure your profits; if you haven't entered the market yet, it is advisable to watch cautiously. It's not that it will definitely fall, but when the market is filled with 'profit-sharing celebrations,' the hidden risks often exceed the potential gains.
The crypto circle has never been short of opportunities; the important thing is to find a direction that matches your risk tolerance and investment logic, and not to lose yourself in chasing highs and cutting losses.
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