美联储7月会议纪要
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Breaking News! Fed Minutes Cause Turmoil, Powell Faces a Choice
On August 21, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from July: maintaining the interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, with two board members (Bowman, Waller) opposing for the first time since 1993, citing concerns over weak employment.
In less than 48 hours, the U.S. Department of Labor revised non-farm payrolls for May and July down by 250,000; the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% (a new high since the end of 2022); July's core CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, creating a rare conflict between inflation and employment pressures.
The market reacted quickly: the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September dropped sharply from 85% to 72%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.1%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 3.87%. At the Jackson Hole annual meeting on August 23, if Powell insists on "inflation first," he risks violating "data dependence," but if he eases up, he fears inflation expectations could spiral out of control.
In the next two weeks, with non-farm and PCE data on the horizon, will he prioritize employment or curb inflation?
#杰克逊霍尔会议 #美联储7月会议纪要
On August 21, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from July: maintaining the interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, with two board members (Bowman, Waller) opposing for the first time since 1993, citing concerns over weak employment.
In less than 48 hours, the U.S. Department of Labor revised non-farm payrolls for May and July down by 250,000; the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% (a new high since the end of 2022); July's core CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, creating a rare conflict between inflation and employment pressures.
The market reacted quickly: the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September dropped sharply from 85% to 72%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.1%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 3.87%. At the Jackson Hole annual meeting on August 23, if Powell insists on "inflation first," he risks violating "data dependence," but if he eases up, he fears inflation expectations could spiral out of control.
In the next two weeks, with non-farm and PCE data on the horizon, will he prioritize employment or curb inflation?
#杰克逊霍尔会议 #美联储7月会议纪要
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Federal Reserve report pours cold water, warning signals for the cryptocurrency market!
Key takeaway: Last night's Federal Reserve meeting minutes sounded the alarm for cryptocurrency traders. The report states that for the next few years, it is highly likely that: interest rates will remain high, corporate cost pressures will not ease, and the economy may continue to 'catch a cold' for years. These three factors combined are not good news for high-risk assets like Bitcoin, making it increasingly difficult to earn money.
First, let’s talk about what’s going on:
The Federal Reserve issued a report early yesterday morning (called the meeting minutes), stating a lot of things, but in summary, it boils down to three points, each of which feels like cold water thrown on the market:
First, let’s talk about what’s going on:
The Federal Reserve issued a report early yesterday morning (called the meeting minutes), stating a lot of things, but in summary, it boils down to three points, each of which feels like cold water thrown on the market:
不惧牛熊:
The market has become immune to it, and the decline has already occurred.
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Federal Reserve's July Meeting Minutes Release Key Signals: Rate Cut Uncertain, Stablecoins Become New Focus
#美联储7月会议纪要 On August 20, 2025, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released the minutes of the monetary policy meeting held on July 29-30. This highly anticipated document not only revealed the intense competition within the Federal Reserve between inflation and employment but also, for the first time, included payment stablecoins in the core agenda of monetary policy discussions, injecting new imaginative space into the virtual currency market.
1. Policy deadlock: The fog of rate cuts in September is thick.
The meeting minutes show that the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.5% by a vote of 9 to 2. Although most officials believe that the current monetary policy stance is 'moderate or slightly tightening,' sufficient to cope with economic fluctuations, Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller voted against it, arguing for an immediate rate cut of 25 basis points to prevent further deterioration of the labor market.
1. Policy deadlock: The fog of rate cuts in September is thick.
The meeting minutes show that the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.5% by a vote of 9 to 2. Although most officials believe that the current monetary policy stance is 'moderate or slightly tightening,' sufficient to cope with economic fluctuations, Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller voted against it, arguing for an immediate rate cut of 25 basis points to prevent further deterioration of the labor market.
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The Wall Street whales are quietly positioning themselves! It's all because of this meeting's minutes! Retail investors are still hesitating, while the smart money has already bottomed out!
Every "whisper" from the Federal Reserve is an invisible code for market direction!
The recently released minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting, to put it simply, is an entangled scene of "inflation vs employment."
Economic Growth: The Federal Reserve believes that the economic growth rate from this year to 2027 is about the same as previously predicted, but "good news and bad news offset each other"—for instance, tariffs are causing prices to rise slower than expected, but consumer spending is not as robust as anticipated, and the contribution of immigrants to the labor force is not as significant as imagined.
Inflation Risk: The big players are still most worried about prices rising too quickly, even more troublesome than employment issues!
Tariffs will push up commodity prices, but Federal Reserve staff have quietly lowered their inflation expectations from June.
Interest Rate Policy: Almost everyone agrees that the current interest rate (4.25%-4.50%) is quite appropriate, with some feeling that "it's almost at the right level," even hinting, "No need to raise rates aggressively anymore; let's wait and see the impact of tariffs on inflation."
Mig's View:
The Federal Reserve's minutes this time resemble a driver who is both stepping on the brakes and checking the fuel gauge—afraid that the economy will accelerate too quickly, causing inflation to spiral out of control, while also fearing that slamming the brakes will trigger a spike in unemployment.
For the crypto world, this "entangled period" is actually a window of opportunity! For example, when the Federal Reserve aggressively raised rates last year, Bitcoin plummeted, but as soon as they slowed down on rate hikes, BTC immediately rebounded by over 30%.
The Federal Reserve's current "wait-and-see" attitude may cause short-term market volatility, but in the long run, a peak in interest rates = a peak in funding costs = reduced pressure on risk assets (like crypto).
If interest rates are cut next year, institutional funds may likely flow back from government bonds to Bitcoin, just like in early 2023!
A question: Do you think the Federal Reserve's "hawkish on the outside, dovish on the inside" approach will push Bitcoin to new highs by the end of the year? Share your opinions in the comments! #美联储7月会议纪要
Lost in the crypto world? Follow Mig for daily market interpretations + hot topic tracking, helping you clear the fog and see the direction!
Every "whisper" from the Federal Reserve is an invisible code for market direction!
The recently released minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting, to put it simply, is an entangled scene of "inflation vs employment."
Economic Growth: The Federal Reserve believes that the economic growth rate from this year to 2027 is about the same as previously predicted, but "good news and bad news offset each other"—for instance, tariffs are causing prices to rise slower than expected, but consumer spending is not as robust as anticipated, and the contribution of immigrants to the labor force is not as significant as imagined.
Inflation Risk: The big players are still most worried about prices rising too quickly, even more troublesome than employment issues!
Tariffs will push up commodity prices, but Federal Reserve staff have quietly lowered their inflation expectations from June.
Interest Rate Policy: Almost everyone agrees that the current interest rate (4.25%-4.50%) is quite appropriate, with some feeling that "it's almost at the right level," even hinting, "No need to raise rates aggressively anymore; let's wait and see the impact of tariffs on inflation."
Mig's View:
The Federal Reserve's minutes this time resemble a driver who is both stepping on the brakes and checking the fuel gauge—afraid that the economy will accelerate too quickly, causing inflation to spiral out of control, while also fearing that slamming the brakes will trigger a spike in unemployment.
For the crypto world, this "entangled period" is actually a window of opportunity! For example, when the Federal Reserve aggressively raised rates last year, Bitcoin plummeted, but as soon as they slowed down on rate hikes, BTC immediately rebounded by over 30%.
The Federal Reserve's current "wait-and-see" attitude may cause short-term market volatility, but in the long run, a peak in interest rates = a peak in funding costs = reduced pressure on risk assets (like crypto).
If interest rates are cut next year, institutional funds may likely flow back from government bonds to Bitcoin, just like in early 2023!
A question: Do you think the Federal Reserve's "hawkish on the outside, dovish on the inside" approach will push Bitcoin to new highs by the end of the year? Share your opinions in the comments! #美联储7月会议纪要
Lost in the crypto world? Follow Mig for daily market interpretations + hot topic tracking, helping you clear the fog and see the direction!
睡衣男神:
你咋不卖房梭哈
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The Fed Goes Hawkish, Is the Crypto Market Going to Crash? Don't Panic Yet!
When the Fed frowns, BTC trembles! But this meeting's minutes hold a major reversal signal!
What did the Fed say? Inflation is the father, interest rate hikes are the knife!
Inflation Can't Be Held Down: The Fed admits "inflation slowdown has stalled," tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, CPI may continue to explode, solid evidence: the meeting minutes clearly mentioned it.
Conflicting Economic Data: GDP growth is moderate, but imports have plummeted as businesses stock up to avoid tariffs, exports are okay, unemployment rate is low but the labor market is weakening.
In simple terms: The U.S. economy is like a "falsely muscular man"—the surface data looks good, but underlying inflation is surging.
Impact on the Crypto Market: Short-term bearish, long-term bullish?
Rising Expectations for Interest Rate Hikes: If inflation doesn't decrease, the Fed may continue to be hawkish or even raise rates, the dollar strengthens, funds may flow back to traditional markets, putting pressure on the crypto market (ETH falling below 4306 is dangerous).
But there's a reversal signal: The Fed said "current interest rates are close to neutral levels," implying limited room for rate hikes!
Historical Case: In the 2022 rate hike cycle, BTC halved, but after pausing rate hikes in 2023, BTC doubled! Will this happen again?
Don’t be scared by short-term panic! The end of the Fed's rate hikes is often the starting point for a big market movement, and the current plunge is a buying opportunity, but don't rush; wait for ETH to stabilize at 4050 before taking action!
Operational Strategy: Risk aversion first, wait for buying signals!
Short-term: If ETH falls below 4306, short on a failed rebound, target 4050.
Long-term: Wait for the September Fed decision; if they stop rate hikes, close your eyes and buy BTC and ETH!
"The Fed's sickle is already raised, will you choose to dodge it or take the chance to pick up bloody chips? Share your holdings in the comments section of Block Key!" #美联储7月会议纪要
When the Fed frowns, BTC trembles! But this meeting's minutes hold a major reversal signal!
What did the Fed say? Inflation is the father, interest rate hikes are the knife!
Inflation Can't Be Held Down: The Fed admits "inflation slowdown has stalled," tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, CPI may continue to explode, solid evidence: the meeting minutes clearly mentioned it.
Conflicting Economic Data: GDP growth is moderate, but imports have plummeted as businesses stock up to avoid tariffs, exports are okay, unemployment rate is low but the labor market is weakening.
In simple terms: The U.S. economy is like a "falsely muscular man"—the surface data looks good, but underlying inflation is surging.
Impact on the Crypto Market: Short-term bearish, long-term bullish?
Rising Expectations for Interest Rate Hikes: If inflation doesn't decrease, the Fed may continue to be hawkish or even raise rates, the dollar strengthens, funds may flow back to traditional markets, putting pressure on the crypto market (ETH falling below 4306 is dangerous).
But there's a reversal signal: The Fed said "current interest rates are close to neutral levels," implying limited room for rate hikes!
Historical Case: In the 2022 rate hike cycle, BTC halved, but after pausing rate hikes in 2023, BTC doubled! Will this happen again?
Don’t be scared by short-term panic! The end of the Fed's rate hikes is often the starting point for a big market movement, and the current plunge is a buying opportunity, but don't rush; wait for ETH to stabilize at 4050 before taking action!
Operational Strategy: Risk aversion first, wait for buying signals!
Short-term: If ETH falls below 4306, short on a failed rebound, target 4050.
Long-term: Wait for the September Fed decision; if they stop rate hikes, close your eyes and buy BTC and ETH!
"The Fed's sickle is already raised, will you choose to dodge it or take the chance to pick up bloody chips? Share your holdings in the comments section of Block Key!" #美联储7月会议纪要
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Federal Reserve's Voice: Only Two Officials Supported Rate Cuts in July, Few Officials Suggest Joining Rate Cut Camp in September
According to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting released early Thursday Beijing time, despite two officials opposing and advocating for rate cuts, the decision made last month to maintain interest rates was still widely supported.
The meeting minutes show that "almost all" officials supported the decision, meaning that aside from the two opposing officials, the remaining 16 participating officials expressed support.
This decision was made after the White House exerted strong political pressure on Fed Chairman Powell to cut rates. Officials decided to maintain the benchmark policy rate within the range of 4.25% to 4.5% after weighing how importers, retailers, and consumers would share the rising costs of import tariffs.
The meeting minutes show that "almost all" officials supported the decision, meaning that aside from the two opposing officials, the remaining 16 participating officials expressed support.
This decision was made after the White House exerted strong political pressure on Fed Chairman Powell to cut rates. Officials decided to maintain the benchmark policy rate within the range of 4.25% to 4.5% after weighing how importers, retailers, and consumers would share the rising costs of import tariffs.
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The Fed meeting released three major signals! The crypto market may usher in new variables, and retail investors need to pay close attention!!
On August 21, the minutes of the Fed's July meeting were released, and three core trends may affect the crypto market:
Signal 1: Inflation is still high, and expectations for interest rate hikes are rising again
The minutes show that most officials believe that the current inflation risk is still higher than the employment risk, and the slowdown has stalled. If future data does not show improvement, interest rates may be raised again before the end of the year.
Impact on the crypto market:
Short-term pressure: Tightening liquidity may trigger a sell-off of risky assets, and Bitcoin may follow the correction.
Long-term benefits: The "anti-inflation" attribute of crypto assets may attract long-term investment from institutional funds.
Signal 2: Tariffs loom, and commodity prices become a new variable
The minutes explicitly mentioned for the first time the upward pressure of tariffs on the cost of imported goods, which the market interprets as a concern about the rise of trade protectionism.
Impact on the crypto market:
Increased demand for safe haven: If the tariff war escalates, Bitcoin's digital gold attribute may be re-priced.
Increased volatility: Trade policy uncertainty may be transmitted to the crypto field through traditional markets.
Signal 3: Interest rates remain high, and the market enters an "observation period"
Almost all officials support keeping the benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.5% range, suggesting that the current interest rate is close to the neutral level.
Impact on the crypto market:
Marginal improvement in liquidity: The cost of capital no longer rises rapidly, and funds in the traditional market may gradually find new outlets.
Institutional layout window: If Grayscale, BlackRock and other institutions are approved for Bitcoin spot ETFs, they may accelerate their entry.
Special Brother's suggestion: Three moves to deal with the new situation
Keep a close eye on key nodes: At the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on August 25, Powell's speech may release more explicit signals.
Diversify asset allocation: Maintain a dynamic balance between traditional markets and crypto markets to avoid excessive exposure to a single asset.
Pay attention to compliance leaders: Mainstream currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are more resilient in policy uncertainty and should be given priority in the portfolio.
Every policy shift by the Federal Reserve is a reshuffle of global capital. For the crypto market, this is both a challenge and an opportunity. Special Brother will continue to follow up on the latest trends and embark on a new journey of wealth with you!
Special Brother's sickle is faster than the dog dealer's! Follow me and I'll teach you how to counter-cut the market! #美联储7月会议纪要
On August 21, the minutes of the Fed's July meeting were released, and three core trends may affect the crypto market:
Signal 1: Inflation is still high, and expectations for interest rate hikes are rising again
The minutes show that most officials believe that the current inflation risk is still higher than the employment risk, and the slowdown has stalled. If future data does not show improvement, interest rates may be raised again before the end of the year.
Impact on the crypto market:
Short-term pressure: Tightening liquidity may trigger a sell-off of risky assets, and Bitcoin may follow the correction.
Long-term benefits: The "anti-inflation" attribute of crypto assets may attract long-term investment from institutional funds.
Signal 2: Tariffs loom, and commodity prices become a new variable
The minutes explicitly mentioned for the first time the upward pressure of tariffs on the cost of imported goods, which the market interprets as a concern about the rise of trade protectionism.
Impact on the crypto market:
Increased demand for safe haven: If the tariff war escalates, Bitcoin's digital gold attribute may be re-priced.
Increased volatility: Trade policy uncertainty may be transmitted to the crypto field through traditional markets.
Signal 3: Interest rates remain high, and the market enters an "observation period"
Almost all officials support keeping the benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.5% range, suggesting that the current interest rate is close to the neutral level.
Impact on the crypto market:
Marginal improvement in liquidity: The cost of capital no longer rises rapidly, and funds in the traditional market may gradually find new outlets.
Institutional layout window: If Grayscale, BlackRock and other institutions are approved for Bitcoin spot ETFs, they may accelerate their entry.
Special Brother's suggestion: Three moves to deal with the new situation
Keep a close eye on key nodes: At the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on August 25, Powell's speech may release more explicit signals.
Diversify asset allocation: Maintain a dynamic balance between traditional markets and crypto markets to avoid excessive exposure to a single asset.
Pay attention to compliance leaders: Mainstream currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are more resilient in policy uncertainty and should be given priority in the portfolio.
Every policy shift by the Federal Reserve is a reshuffle of global capital. For the crypto market, this is both a challenge and an opportunity. Special Brother will continue to follow up on the latest trends and embark on a new journey of wealth with you!
Special Brother's sickle is faster than the dog dealer's! Follow me and I'll teach you how to counter-cut the market! #美联储7月会议纪要
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Dynamics of the past 24 hours
Market Overview 📉
The crypto market continues to decline
Total market capitalization dropped to $3.87 trillion, down 3.6% in 24 hours. Bitcoin fell 2.7%, trading at $113,200; Ethereum dropped 5%, trading at $4,099. The DeFi and PayFi sectors saw the largest declines, down 5.6% and 5.5% respectively.
Eyes on the Federal Reserve 👀
The important meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve is approaching, and market sentiment is tense. The July FOMC minutes will be released on August 20, and Chairman Powell will speak on August 22 at Jackson Hole. Investors are worried about sustained interest rate hikes, leading to a decrease in risk appetite, with major cryptocurrencies and related stocks hitting several months' lows. For example, MicroStrategy's stock price fell 7.8%, reaching its lowest since April, while Galaxy, SharpLink, and BitMine saw daily declines close to 10%.
The crypto market continues to decline
Total market capitalization dropped to $3.87 trillion, down 3.6% in 24 hours. Bitcoin fell 2.7%, trading at $113,200; Ethereum dropped 5%, trading at $4,099. The DeFi and PayFi sectors saw the largest declines, down 5.6% and 5.5% respectively.
Eyes on the Federal Reserve 👀
The important meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve is approaching, and market sentiment is tense. The July FOMC minutes will be released on August 20, and Chairman Powell will speak on August 22 at Jackson Hole. Investors are worried about sustained interest rate hikes, leading to a decrease in risk appetite, with major cryptocurrencies and related stocks hitting several months' lows. For example, MicroStrategy's stock price fell 7.8%, reaching its lowest since April, while Galaxy, SharpLink, and BitMine saw daily declines close to 10%.
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At 2:00 PM (Eastern Time) on August 20, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the July FOMC meeting.
The main policy stance is to keep interest rates unchanged, maintaining the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%–4.50%, which marks the fifth consecutive time the federal funds rate has remained unchanged.
However, it is rare that Federal Reserve Chair Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller cast dissenting votes, agreeing that interest rates should be cut by 0.25 percentage points at that time.
This is the first occurrence of dual protests in the same meeting since 1993.
Most risk officials believe that the risk of inflation outweighs the risk of weak employment, particularly concerned about cost-push inflation due to new tariffs that began to take effect in August, which will ultimately be passed on to consumers by businesses.
The market's reaction is still anticipating a possible interest rate cut in September (due to the presence of dissenting voices), but more clear data support is needed.
Later, attention can also be paid to the Jackson Hole meeting.
#美联储7月会议纪要
The main policy stance is to keep interest rates unchanged, maintaining the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%–4.50%, which marks the fifth consecutive time the federal funds rate has remained unchanged.
However, it is rare that Federal Reserve Chair Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller cast dissenting votes, agreeing that interest rates should be cut by 0.25 percentage points at that time.
This is the first occurrence of dual protests in the same meeting since 1993.
Most risk officials believe that the risk of inflation outweighs the risk of weak employment, particularly concerned about cost-push inflation due to new tariffs that began to take effect in August, which will ultimately be passed on to consumers by businesses.
The market's reaction is still anticipating a possible interest rate cut in September (due to the presence of dissenting voices), but more clear data support is needed.
Later, attention can also be paid to the Jackson Hole meeting.
#美联储7月会议纪要
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Analyze the Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes
Neutral to dovish, a "mildly positive" signal for the crypto market.
Key points:
1. Interest rates are nearing neutral, suggesting the end of the rate hike cycle and potential future rate cuts.
2. Inflation is manageable, and growth is slowing, reducing the necessity for "continued tightening."
3. Liquidity expectations are improving, increasing the likelihood of a weaker dollar, which is favorable for risk assets, including Bitcoin.
4. Specifically mentioned "close attention to stablecoins," with short-term regulatory uncertainty still present; however, this is a recurring theme and does not constitute new bearish news.
#美联储7月会议纪要 #BNB #solana #sui #DOGE $BTC
Neutral to dovish, a "mildly positive" signal for the crypto market.
Key points:
1. Interest rates are nearing neutral, suggesting the end of the rate hike cycle and potential future rate cuts.
2. Inflation is manageable, and growth is slowing, reducing the necessity for "continued tightening."
3. Liquidity expectations are improving, increasing the likelihood of a weaker dollar, which is favorable for risk assets, including Bitcoin.
4. Specifically mentioned "close attention to stablecoins," with short-term regulatory uncertainty still present; however, this is a recurring theme and does not constitute new bearish news.
#美联储7月会议纪要 #BNB #solana #sui #DOGE $BTC
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Latest Cryptocurrency News (August 22, 2025)
1. Bitcoin Rebounds: BTC is currently at $114,300, up 1.2% in the last 24 hours, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading to a more optimistic market sentiment.
2. Ethereum Stabilizes: ETH rises to $4,200, with a reduced decline, as on-chain data shows an increase in whale purchases.
3. Altcoin Activity: SOL soars to $186, BNB breaks above $890, and the meme coin craze continues to heat up.
4. Macroeconomic Positive Factors: The Federal Reserve meeting minutes show an 85% chance of a rate cut in September, boosting confidence in the cryptocurrency market. #BNB创新高 #名人MEME热潮 #美联储7月会议纪要 #加密市场回调 #加密市场回调 $BTC
5. Market Dynamics: Total liquidations across the network drop to $200M, with a slight recovery in capital inflows.
1. Bitcoin Rebounds: BTC is currently at $114,300, up 1.2% in the last 24 hours, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading to a more optimistic market sentiment.
2. Ethereum Stabilizes: ETH rises to $4,200, with a reduced decline, as on-chain data shows an increase in whale purchases.
3. Altcoin Activity: SOL soars to $186, BNB breaks above $890, and the meme coin craze continues to heat up.
4. Macroeconomic Positive Factors: The Federal Reserve meeting minutes show an 85% chance of a rate cut in September, boosting confidence in the cryptocurrency market. #BNB创新高 #名人MEME热潮 #美联储7月会议纪要 #加密市场回调 #加密市场回调 $BTC
5. Market Dynamics: Total liquidations across the network drop to $200M, with a slight recovery in capital inflows.
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The Federal Reserve's Meeting Minutes Highlight a 'Stable but Slowing' Labor Market; Clear Signals of a Policy Shift Are Hard to Find in the Short Term
The statement in the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes that 'the labor market remains robust' accurately summarizes the core characteristics of the current U.S. job market—overall resilience remains unchanged, but local signs of slowing have emerged. This trend may further support the Federal Reserve's cautious observation and refrain from a shift in monetary policy tone.
From the data perspective, the foundation of 'robustness' still exists: the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in June, remaining at a historically low level; the employment-to-population ratio remains stable, indicating that the overall supply-demand dynamics in the labor market have not fundamentally loosened; although the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed persons has not clearly risen, it remains stable within a narrow range over the past year, suggesting that the demand side for labor has not contracted significantly, and the market's capacity to absorb labor still exists.
However, the signals of 'slowing' cannot be ignored and may receive more attention from the Federal Reserve: on one hand, the increase in private sector employment in June has 'significantly slowed,' and as a core component of the job market, the weakening of hiring in the private sector may imply that businesses have become more cautious about economic prospects, potentially putting pressure on future employment growth momentum; on the other hand, the 12-month average hourly wage growth of 3.7% is 'slightly lower than the same period last year.' The moderate decline in wage growth not only alleviates some inflationary pressures but also indirectly reflects a marginal easing in the tightness of the labor market, resonating with the 'significant slowdown' in private employment.
Overall, the current labor market's 'stable but slowing' condition precisely aligns with the Federal Reserve's previous policy goal of 'balancing inflation and employment'—there have been no 'risk signals' of a significant deterioration in the job market that would require urgent easing measures such as interest rate cuts, nor have there been any 'overheating signals' of wage-inflation spirals that would necessitate the resumption of rate hikes. In the short term, this trend is likely to keep the Federal Reserve in a 'wait-and-see mode,' and the timing of any future policy shift still requires waiting for further verification from more employment and inflation data, while the market must prepare for the expectation management of sustained 'high-pressure stability.' #美联储7月会议纪要
The statement in the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes that 'the labor market remains robust' accurately summarizes the core characteristics of the current U.S. job market—overall resilience remains unchanged, but local signs of slowing have emerged. This trend may further support the Federal Reserve's cautious observation and refrain from a shift in monetary policy tone.
From the data perspective, the foundation of 'robustness' still exists: the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in June, remaining at a historically low level; the employment-to-population ratio remains stable, indicating that the overall supply-demand dynamics in the labor market have not fundamentally loosened; although the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed persons has not clearly risen, it remains stable within a narrow range over the past year, suggesting that the demand side for labor has not contracted significantly, and the market's capacity to absorb labor still exists.
However, the signals of 'slowing' cannot be ignored and may receive more attention from the Federal Reserve: on one hand, the increase in private sector employment in June has 'significantly slowed,' and as a core component of the job market, the weakening of hiring in the private sector may imply that businesses have become more cautious about economic prospects, potentially putting pressure on future employment growth momentum; on the other hand, the 12-month average hourly wage growth of 3.7% is 'slightly lower than the same period last year.' The moderate decline in wage growth not only alleviates some inflationary pressures but also indirectly reflects a marginal easing in the tightness of the labor market, resonating with the 'significant slowdown' in private employment.
Overall, the current labor market's 'stable but slowing' condition precisely aligns with the Federal Reserve's previous policy goal of 'balancing inflation and employment'—there have been no 'risk signals' of a significant deterioration in the job market that would require urgent easing measures such as interest rate cuts, nor have there been any 'overheating signals' of wage-inflation spirals that would necessitate the resumption of rate hikes. In the short term, this trend is likely to keep the Federal Reserve in a 'wait-and-see mode,' and the timing of any future policy shift still requires waiting for further verification from more employment and inflation data, while the market must prepare for the expectation management of sustained 'high-pressure stability.' #美联储7月会议纪要
超级带饭王:
利好出尽就是利空，现在降息都按暂停键了。基本要破4了
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After the July Federal Reserve meeting, Bitcoin may welcome some opportunities.
Overall, the Federal Reserve's attitude remains tight, without immediately signaling easing, but compared to before, many officials have clearly softened on the issue of interest rate cuts in September, with some even directly stating they might support it. The market expects that once expectations form ahead of time, the dollar will come under pressure, liquidity will increase, and funds will naturally seek higher-yielding targets, benefiting both stocks and crypto assets.
Bitcoin's attributes perfectly fit this environment: on one hand, its inherent volatility is suitable for speculative trading; on the other hand, some investors view it as a tool to hedge against inflation. In the short term, there are news-driven speculations, while in the medium term, there is a macroeconomic environment that supports it.
Moreover, there is no consensus within the Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts; this uncertainty may actually create volatility and opportunities for Bitcoin.
#美联储7月会议纪要 #杰克逊霍尔会议
Overall, the Federal Reserve's attitude remains tight, without immediately signaling easing, but compared to before, many officials have clearly softened on the issue of interest rate cuts in September, with some even directly stating they might support it. The market expects that once expectations form ahead of time, the dollar will come under pressure, liquidity will increase, and funds will naturally seek higher-yielding targets, benefiting both stocks and crypto assets.
Bitcoin's attributes perfectly fit this environment: on one hand, its inherent volatility is suitable for speculative trading; on the other hand, some investors view it as a tool to hedge against inflation. In the short term, there are news-driven speculations, while in the medium term, there is a macroeconomic environment that supports it.
Moreover, there is no consensus within the Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts; this uncertainty may actually create volatility and opportunities for Bitcoin.
#美联储7月会议纪要 #杰克逊霍尔会议
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Interpretation of the deep impact of the Federal Reserve's July minutes on the cryptocurrency market
Interpretation of the deep impact of the Federal Reserve's July minutes on the cryptocurrency market
In the early hours of Thursday Beijing time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the July policy meeting. The minutes show that only two officials clearly supported an interest rate cut in July, while 'almost all' other officials still agreed to maintain interest rates. However, it is worth noting that a few officials have hinted or will join the interest rate cut camp in September.
The signals released by these minutes are very subtle: in the short term, the Federal Reserve remains hawkish and is not in a hurry to release liquidity; however, in the medium term, it has already laid the groundwork for a potential shift.
For the cryptocurrency market, the impacts can be divided into three levels:
In the early hours of Thursday Beijing time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the July policy meeting. The minutes show that only two officials clearly supported an interest rate cut in July, while 'almost all' other officials still agreed to maintain interest rates. However, it is worth noting that a few officials have hinted or will join the interest rate cut camp in September.
The signals released by these minutes are very subtle: in the short term, the Federal Reserve remains hawkish and is not in a hurry to release liquidity; however, in the medium term, it has already laid the groundwork for a potential shift.
For the cryptocurrency market, the impacts can be divided into three levels:
See original
The minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting are out, packed with information yet full of "conflicted literature" 👇
📉 Economic hidden dangers buried:
The minutes bluntly state that "the trade war brings great uncertainty," and non-farm data has been revised down (what happened to the strong job market?), concerns about economic slowdown are intensifying, but the inflation monster is still not caged!
💸 Interest rate cut expectations crash:
The market is frantically lowering interest rate cut expectations—Polymarket data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September has dropped to 68%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is only 2%... what happened to the promised "flood of liquidity"? Is the Fed going to be dovish or hawkish?
🤷♂️ In plain language:
The U.S. economy is like a “giant running with cracks,” surface data looks fine, but underneath it’s all just holding on. Fear of a collapse with rate hikes, fear of inflation with rate cuts, the Fed is in a dilemma!
🪙 Impact on the crypto world: Short-term panic, long-term opportunity?
Bearish pressure: If rate cuts are delayed, the dollar strengthens, funds may flow back to traditional markets, BTC and ETH may face short-term pressure (note that if ETH breaks key support levels, it may trigger a chain reaction of selling).
🧠 How should savvy players operate?
Don’t be swayed by short-term emotions! If BTC can hold above $100,000, and ETFs continue to flow in, there will still be opportunities for medium to long-term positioning. Remember: the more hesitant the Fed is, the more sensitive the market becomes, volatility = opportunity!
In summary:
The Fed is playing Tai Chi, the crypto world is playing heartbeat. There's no rush to buy the dip, wait for clear signals before taking action!
#美联储7月会议纪要
📉 Economic hidden dangers buried:
The minutes bluntly state that "the trade war brings great uncertainty," and non-farm data has been revised down (what happened to the strong job market?), concerns about economic slowdown are intensifying, but the inflation monster is still not caged!
💸 Interest rate cut expectations crash:
The market is frantically lowering interest rate cut expectations—Polymarket data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September has dropped to 68%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is only 2%... what happened to the promised "flood of liquidity"? Is the Fed going to be dovish or hawkish?
🤷♂️ In plain language:
The U.S. economy is like a “giant running with cracks,” surface data looks fine, but underneath it’s all just holding on. Fear of a collapse with rate hikes, fear of inflation with rate cuts, the Fed is in a dilemma!
🪙 Impact on the crypto world: Short-term panic, long-term opportunity?
Bearish pressure: If rate cuts are delayed, the dollar strengthens, funds may flow back to traditional markets, BTC and ETH may face short-term pressure (note that if ETH breaks key support levels, it may trigger a chain reaction of selling).
🧠 How should savvy players operate?
Don’t be swayed by short-term emotions! If BTC can hold above $100,000, and ETFs continue to flow in, there will still be opportunities for medium to long-term positioning. Remember: the more hesitant the Fed is, the more sensitive the market becomes, volatility = opportunity!
In summary:
The Fed is playing Tai Chi, the crypto world is playing heartbeat. There's no rush to buy the dip, wait for clear signals before taking action!
#美联储7月会议纪要
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#美联储7月会议纪要 The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes show that most officials support keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged, with only two officials advocating for a rate cut. The main points of the minutes are as follows:
Interest Rate Decision
Almost all participants believe that maintaining the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% is appropriate.
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Bowman and Governor Waller advocate for a 25 basis point rate cut to guard against deterioration in the labor market.
Economic Outlook
Most officials believe that inflation risks remain, and they expect inflation to rise in the short term.
Some officials believe that tariffs may lead to a one-time increase in prices, while others are concerned that supply chain disruptions could cause stubbornly high inflation.
The supply and demand situation in the labor market continues to trend towards balance, but the unemployment rate has risen and the monthly growth rate of job openings has slowed.
Financial Stability
Some officials are concerned about high asset valuation pressures.
The meeting discussed issues related to stablecoins, emphasizing their potential impact on the banking sector, financial system, and implementation of monetary policy.
Future Policy Direction
The vast majority of participants believe that if data continues to meet expectations, a rate cut in September may be appropriate.
Almost all participants stated that more information is needed to enhance confidence in a decline in inflation before a rate cut.
Interest Rate Decision
Almost all participants believe that maintaining the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% is appropriate.
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Bowman and Governor Waller advocate for a 25 basis point rate cut to guard against deterioration in the labor market.
Economic Outlook
Most officials believe that inflation risks remain, and they expect inflation to rise in the short term.
Some officials believe that tariffs may lead to a one-time increase in prices, while others are concerned that supply chain disruptions could cause stubbornly high inflation.
The supply and demand situation in the labor market continues to trend towards balance, but the unemployment rate has risen and the monthly growth rate of job openings has slowed.
Financial Stability
Some officials are concerned about high asset valuation pressures.
The meeting discussed issues related to stablecoins, emphasizing their potential impact on the banking sector, financial system, and implementation of monetary policy.
Future Policy Direction
The vast majority of participants believe that if data continues to meet expectations, a rate cut in September may be appropriate.
Almost all participants stated that more information is needed to enhance confidence in a decline in inflation before a rate cut.
See original
In the early morning, the latest minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting were released, sparking widespread attention, and the market's expectations for a rate cut in September changed.
The minutes indicate that there is a growing divide within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, with most officials advocating for maintaining the current interest rate levels. The July meeting's more "hawkish" tone has made the possibility of a rate cut in September more uncertain.
Recent U.S. economic data has shown mixed results, with inflation-related data trending upwards, further intensifying the Federal Reserve's concerns about inflation. Prior to this, the market widely believed that the probability of a rate cut in September was very high, but the release of these minutes has significantly impacted that expectation. Morgan Stanley has also issued a warning, suggesting that Powell may release hawkish signals at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting to curb the market's expectations for a rate cut.
It is essential to pay close attention to the upcoming inflation data, employment data, and Powell's public speeches, as this information will be key to determining the direction of Federal Reserve policy. Currently, global financial markets are in a state of close anticipation.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BNB创新高 #名人MEME热潮 #杰克逊霍尔会议 #美联储7月会议纪要 #加密概念美股普涨
The minutes indicate that there is a growing divide within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, with most officials advocating for maintaining the current interest rate levels. The July meeting's more "hawkish" tone has made the possibility of a rate cut in September more uncertain.
Recent U.S. economic data has shown mixed results, with inflation-related data trending upwards, further intensifying the Federal Reserve's concerns about inflation. Prior to this, the market widely believed that the probability of a rate cut in September was very high, but the release of these minutes has significantly impacted that expectation. Morgan Stanley has also issued a warning, suggesting that Powell may release hawkish signals at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting to curb the market's expectations for a rate cut.
It is essential to pay close attention to the upcoming inflation data, employment data, and Powell's public speeches, as this information will be key to determining the direction of Federal Reserve policy. Currently, global financial markets are in a state of close anticipation.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BNB创新高 #名人MEME热潮 #杰克逊霍尔会议 #美联储7月会议纪要 #加密概念美股普涨
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The release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes at 2 AM triggered a decline in the two major cryptocurrencies, which had a certain impact on the market, causing Bitcoin to drop to 113200 and Ethereum to 4261. The impact was not significant, and it quickly rebounded, indicating that macroeconomic policies and interest rate expectations in the traditional financial sector can still rapidly transmit to the crypto market. The position of the 'Duo Meat' laid out yesterday also hit the ideal spot precisely.
In the future market, attention should be paid to 112000, which is seen as a support level. If it breaks below, it may trigger further declines. Conversely, if it can stabilize at the current level and break upwards, market sentiment may improve.
Currently, after the previous adjustments, Bitcoin is gradually recovering, with both the lower and upper levels moving up synchronously. However, attention should still be paid to potential pullback movements; at this time, the overall direction can be treated with a 'Duo' approach.
Around 113500-114000 'Duo', looking at 115000-116000 around #美联储7月会议纪要 #加密概念美股普涨 #BNB创新高 $BTC $BTC
In the future market, attention should be paid to 112000, which is seen as a support level. If it breaks below, it may trigger further declines. Conversely, if it can stabilize at the current level and break upwards, market sentiment may improve.
Currently, after the previous adjustments, Bitcoin is gradually recovering, with both the lower and upper levels moving up synchronously. However, attention should still be paid to potential pullback movements; at this time, the overall direction can be treated with a 'Duo' approach.
Around 113500-114000 'Duo', looking at 115000-116000 around #美联储7月会议纪要 #加密概念美股普涨 #BNB创新高 $BTC $BTC
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Early in the morning, the Federal Reserve released the latest minutes from its meeting, drawing attention: the expectations for a rate cut in September have changed.
The minutes show an increasing divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding monetary policy, with most believing that current interest rates should be maintained. The hawkish tone from the July meeting has made a rate cut in September more uncertain.
Recently, U.S. economic data has been mixed, and rising inflation-related data has heightened the Federal Reserve's concerns about inflation. Previously, the market widely believed that a rate cut in September was highly likely, but this expectation has been shaken by the release of the minutes. Morgan Stanley has warned that Powell may release hawkish signals at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting, suppressing rate cut expectations.
Fans need to pay close attention to subsequent inflation, employment data, and Powell's speeches to assess the direction of Federal Reserve policy, as global financial markets are closely watching. $BTC $ETH #美联储7月会议纪要 #美联储7月会议纪要
The minutes show an increasing divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding monetary policy, with most believing that current interest rates should be maintained. The hawkish tone from the July meeting has made a rate cut in September more uncertain.
Recently, U.S. economic data has been mixed, and rising inflation-related data has heightened the Federal Reserve's concerns about inflation. Previously, the market widely believed that a rate cut in September was highly likely, but this expectation has been shaken by the release of the minutes. Morgan Stanley has warned that Powell may release hawkish signals at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting, suppressing rate cut expectations.
Fans need to pay close attention to subsequent inflation, employment data, and Powell's speeches to assess the direction of Federal Reserve policy, as global financial markets are closely watching. $BTC $ETH #美联储7月会议纪要 #美联储7月会议纪要
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