Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. non-farm unemployment claims data will be released. This indicator requires close attention as it can significantly affect short-term sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. Last week, after the data was released, the market experienced a concentrated downward movement due to negative expectations, putting noticeable pressure on long positions.
Currently, the market's speculation on the data has entered a heated phase: some funds are betting that the data will be better than expected, trying to push for a rebound in the market based on the logic of "economic recovery → risk appetite increases"; there are also funds anticipating that the data volatility could trigger "whipsaw movements", choosing to observe or to implement a range-bound strategy.
Considering the current market sentiment and historical patterns, my judgment is: the short-term impact of the data may be limited, and I do not recommend entering the market early to bet on the direction.
There are two reasons for this:
First, the recent linkage between the cryptocurrency market and traditional financial markets has weakened, decreasing the ability of individual data to change trends;
Second, the volatility triggered by last week's data has already released some emotions in advance, so tonight the market may be more inclined to "digest expectations rather than create trends".
In terms of operations, I suggest: observe the market for 30 minutes after the data release, and only enter after confirming market direction with K-line patterns and trading volume; if chaotic fluctuations occur, one can directly abandon short-term speculation and wait for emotions to stabilize before positioning.
I will track the data and market changes in real-time, and if there are clear signals, I will synchronize them immediately. At this stage, "stabilizing positions" is more important than "seizing opportunities".
