8.22 BTC Precise Market Analysis:
Fed's Speech Becomes Key, Long and Short Battle Focused on Rate Cut Signals
Currently, BTC is hovering around 113,000 USD, and the market has entered the 'Fed Rate Cut Expectation Battle Period.' Whales are washing out positions amid divergence, and the fluctuations in large holders' positions hide reversal signals. Tonight, Powell's speech will determine the direction.
Recently, BTC has been fluctuating sideways, essentially a battle between bulls and bears over the Fed's policy divergence:
One side believes 'inflation is resilient, and a rate cut is hard to implement,' while the other side bets 'under economic pressure, a rate cut may start in September';
Whales are washing out positions due to the divergence, forcing indecisive large holders to cut losses, accumulating strength for the subsequent market movement — once clear signals emerge, large capital will reallocate.
Tonight at 22:00, Powell's speech will directly affect the market's expectations for 'rate cuts in September,' with three possible scenarios:
1: Clear rate cut in September (20% probability): Releases a signal of 'inflation is controllable, rate cut to start in September,' initiating a wave of upward movement, altcoins will also catch up.
2: Hints at future rate cuts (50% probability): States 'currently not cutting rates, but economic data supports future easing,' maintaining rate cut expectations, BTC oscillates upward.
3: Maintains hawkish stance (30% probability): Emphasizes 'inflation risks are not eliminated, not considering rate cuts for now,' reinforcing tightening expectations, BTC dips.
Huang Licheng holds a $140 million long position with an unrealized loss of $9.81 million; signals of 'large capital positions under pressure' must be taken seriously:
Historical patterns show that after large holders face liquidation or deep unrealized losses, the market often accompanies a reversal (rebalancing of bullish and bearish forces).
Currently, it is not recommended to exit; instead, phased entry can be considered.
Tonight marks the intersection of 'Fed Policy Expectations' and 'Cryptocurrency Market Movements.' Understanding the signals from Powell's speech will help align with BTC's bullish and bearish rhythms. Remember: when policy expectations reverse, it often presents the biggest opportunities — phased entry, waiting for the right moment.
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