With only one day left until Federal Reserve Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central banking conference on August 22 at 22:00, the crypto market is caught in an intense game of 'panic and layout': the sudden appearance of '910,000 ETH unblocking' has triggered a wave of selling, while institutions are massively buying 510,000 ETH against the trend. What truth is hidden in this scramble for chips on the eve of the policy announcement?

1. The panic triggered by '910,000 ETH unblocking': it may be a 'selling pressure illusion' created by big players.

The data of '910,000 ETH unblocking' has thrown the market into panic, but the core truth behind this phenomenon is deliberately concealed:

- Unblocking is not equivalent to selling: the current on-chain lending rates have soared to 18%, reaching a peak for the year, and holders are unblocking to reduce the risk of leveraged liquidation, which is a form of passive deleveraging, not an active sell-off. In fact, the true selling pressure is still less than 30% of the surface number.

- The big players' intention to amplify panic is obvious: they used retail investors' worries about policy uncertainty to create a wave of selling 36 hours before Powell's speech, aiming to buy up chips at low prices.

2. Institutions are buying 510,000 against the trend: betting on 'Powell's dovish trump card'

Just as retail investors are swayed by panic, institutions have already launched their 'pre-policy buying' mode:

- BMNR crazily bought 370,000 ETH within a week, averaging 53,000 per day, setting a historical record for increased positions ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting;

- SBET simultaneously bought 140,000 ETH, with the two institutions collectively purchasing 510,000 ETH in 7 days, averaging 73,000 per day.

The real actions of institutions point to a core logic: they are betting that Powell will release dovish signals. Once the Federal Reserve hints at 'interest rate cut expectations', dollar liquidity will flood into the market, and ETH, as the 'liquidity magnet' of the crypto market, may break through $4,400, which could just be the beginning.

3. Jackson Hole conference: the life-and-death battle for ETH's liquidity

As the Federal Reserve's annual core policy briefing, Powell's statement will determine the short-term direction of ETH:

① If the hawkish stance continues: a rebound may come after bad news is fully priced in.

If Powell emphasizes that 'persistent inflation requires continued interest rate hikes', the market may experience temporary panic, but ETH has already digested the interest rate hike expectations in advance, with previous declines exceeding 80%, leaving limited room for further decline, which may instead trigger a rebound after 'bad news is fully priced in'.

② If it turns dovish: it may replicate the historical surge.

If Powell hints at 'slowing interest rate hikes or discussing rate cuts', the floodgates of dollar liquidity will open. Looking back at the dovish statements released by Powell in 2023, ETH surged 42% within 72 hours, and this time institutions are laying out 3 days in advance, replicating this historical logic.

4. Current stage warning: getting off means giving up 'policy dividends'

In the three major phases of a bull market, ETH is currently in the second phase of 'growing in doubt': the big players are using 'unblocking' to wash the market, while institutions are leveraging policy expectations to buy the dip, and the 'policy nuclear bomb' on August 22 will become a critical turning point.

Choosing to exit at this point is equivalent to handing over chips to institutions before the policy dividends are released. Historical experience shows that when central bank policies are favorable, previously hidden funds often achieve the largest gains.

Finally, it is important to note: unblocking data is just a smokescreen of panic, the 510,000 ETH bought by institutions is the clear signal, and Powell's statement will determine the direction of liquidity. With only 2 days left until the policy window, hold onto your chips and wait for the market to give the final answer.#加密市场回调