The market is like crossing a narrow bridge; the steady ones are the winners, while those who panic will fall into the water! Right now, this market is simply 'overinflated'. The rebound's high point hasn't even surpassed the previous low; it feels like a false alarm. The question is: can this momentum continue, or will the next step break the bridge?
Market sentiment analysis
The latest market sentiment is very straightforward: funds haven't kept up, and trading volume has not effectively increased. On the macro front, the probability of the Fed cutting rates in September remains high, but no funds have preemptively entered the crypto market; instead, it’s a game of existing stocks. BTC is gradually approaching the previous daily low, and market panic is accumulating, with everyone focusing on the same point: will it break or hold?
BTC
Current situation: it feels like climbing a slope with no strength; the rebound can't even surpass the previous low, and buying interest is clearly lacking.
Key level: keep an eye on 113788!
If the 4-hour level can firmly hold this position, it may stabilize in the short term, with the next step possibly reaching pressure levels like 114800, 115800;
But if it breaks below 113788, this rebound is basically over, and we need to look for support below, like 113000, 112317.
Trading advice:
Long position = wait for a second pullback confirmation before entering, don't chase highs;
Short position = if it breaks and doesn’t retrace, follow in, stop loss ±0.3%–0.5%.
Position = 30% in batches, better to miss out than to go all in.
Old Zhu's view: the market is like 'boiling a frog in warm water', breaking the previous low is highly probable (unless there is a sudden surge in volume). For example, last week's false breakout trapped many retail investors who chased in, so remember not to blindly catch the bottom!
2. Ethereum
Line of life and death: 4326 (1-hour level)!
If it goes up, the short-term targets are 4378, 4399;
If it breaks below, it will directly probe down, with support around 4272, 4217.
Trading advice:
Long position: wait for a second pullback confirmation before entering, do not chase after long upper shadow big bullish candles.
Short position: don’t rush after a break; wait for a retracement that doesn’t go back up before following.
Position: Ethereum's volatility is more flexible than BTC, so positions can be smaller to test first, and add after confirmation.
Old Zhu reminds: Ethereum has been strongly correlated with BTC recently, but with larger fluctuations. For instance, the day before yesterday, it dropped 2% more than BTC; once it breaks, it might drop even harder.
3. SOL
Key level: 187!
Only if it holds can it push towards 190, 195;
If it can’t hold, continue looking for support at 185, 179.
Trading advice:
For SOL trading, it's all about 'quick in and out'; start with a small position for trial and add after confirming the direction.
Definitely don’t go all in; its rhythm can easily lead you to be repeatedly harvested.
Stop loss remains tight, **187±0.5%** is the defensive line.
Case reference: SOL was bouncing around 187 last month, then broke below and dropped straight to 170; we need to be wary of history repeating!
The logic is actually very clear:
Stabilizing = taking a breath: holding at the key level means bulls can at least secure a ticket to continue testing upwards.
Breaking below = announcement of ending: once it can’t hold, the rebound story is completely over, and the bears will continue to dominate.
Volume is the referee: just price isn't enough; the key is volume and the quality of closing, which truly validates consensus.
To summarize: the current market direction is not chosen arbitrarily, but answered by key levels. My view, Old Zhu's view, is very clear—113,788 is the line of life and death for BTC; if it holds, there’s still some breathing room, but if it breaks, be cautious of a bearish acceleration.
The market presents opportunities every day, but they only favor those who know how to wait for confirmation. If you want to know the next key level, remember to follow Old Zhu; he'll give you the most practical strategies every day before the market opens!
