Brothers, the market is like a roller coaster; whoever gets on first will enjoy it first!

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has soared to 81.9%, like setting a fire in the market—small flames, but once it catches, it will be a raging fire!

Here comes the question: Will this fire burn into a $4 trillion super bull market, or will it be doused halfway? This is the suspense everyone must keep an eye on next!

1 Market sentiment has already been ignited.

Recently, the entire market is like a pack of wolves smelling barbecue, howling to rush in!

Bitcoin surged to 124,000 USD last week; although it has now fallen back to 116,300 USD, have you noticed? No matter how hard it falls, institutions are still quietly buying!

Whale address 'bc1qgf' has swept up 179 million USD in BTC in a month, and funds for the BlackRock ETF (IBIT) are still flowing in.

This is the signal: funds haven’t run away, sentiment hasn't cooled; we are just waiting for a formal policy rollout!

Logic 2: Why is a bull market a high-probability event?

Let's state the conclusion first: Rate cut = cheap money, risk assets will soar!

In 2020-2021, the Federal Reserve flooded the market, and Bitcoin rose from 7,000 to 68,000, nearly a tenfold increase.

The situation is even more intense now:

July CPI rose only 0.2% month-on-month, inflation is not that scary.

Employment data is weak, and Goldman Sachs bluntly states: the September 'insurance rate cut' is almost a done deal.

Institutions are already one step ahead: VanEck calls for BTC to reach 180,000 by the end of the year, and some analysts even see 300,000!

To put it bluntly, this market is similar to 2020, but the scale is larger, and the funds are stronger; a bull market is just a matter of time.

3 Short-term operation strategy (Lao Zhu's insights are here)

Although the overall trend is upward, there are pits along the way; retail investors must remember these few points to survive:

BTC watershed: 114,800

If it breaks below here, bulls need to be cautious.

Short-term support: 113,500

Hold steady here, and there will still be room for a rebound.

Resistance levels: 116,800 / 117,880 / 118,560

If you want to get on board in the short term, it’s best to wait for a breakthrough at 116,800; then it will be considered stable.

Operation advice:

Don't go all in; maintain a flexible position of 30%-40%.

Ethereum (ETH) support is at 4,245, pressure looks at 4,500; short-term fluctuations are large, leverage is not recommended.

For those who want to be stable, just lie on BTC + ETH mainstream, don't chase small coins recklessly.

In short: focus on short-term support, hold mainstream assets for the long term.

Lao Zhu's viewpoint:

Brothers, don't wait until Bitcoin really breaks 150,000 to chase high; by then, all you will see is other people's profits in the market!

Smart money is already positioning early; what we need to do is not chase the excitement but ambush in the quiet places.

The Fed's rate cut is the fuse, institutional entry is the powder keg, and retail sentiment is the final explosion point!

In this round of bull market, I, Lao Zhu, will say one thing: those who get in the morning will feast, those who are late can only drink soup.