#美联储7月会议纪要 The financial market is holding its breath for Powell's eighth and final keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. If the market trends following his previous seven speeches are any indication, investors should buckle up for volatility.

Federal Reserve watchers will focus on whether Powell will signal a rate cut at the September 16-17 meeting. Although his public statements in recent months have been relatively hawkish, these occurred before the weak employment data released in July — data that has significantly heightened expectations for easing.

Currently, futures traders are pricing in an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, and they expect another 25 basis point cut before the end of the year. Powell's speech on Friday may clarify whether these positions can be "cashed in."

Given that traders are heavily betting the Fed will take action soon, if Powell maintains the stance that "decision-makers need more data to restart the easing cycle that was paused last December," the market may face "painful trading."

Investors have reason to remain cautious. Historical data shows that Powell's Jackson Hole speeches often trigger significant market volatility, especially in the bond market. Notably, despite Powell being generally viewed as dovish, his key speeches at Jackson Hole typically elevate yields rather than suppress them.