The Federal Reserve's Market Shift! Powell's Speech Becomes New Focus in Crypto Circle
On August 21, the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes revealed "outdated" signals.
This directly led to a lukewarm market reaction to the minutes, with the dollar's slight rebound failing to gain traction. The real "eye of the storm" is shifting to Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium this Friday!
1. Minutes "Invalidated": Expectation Gap Caused by Data Misalignment The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes are essentially a "lagging feedback of old data":
The minutes are based on judgments "before the release of July's non-farm payroll data," emphasizing that "inflation risks are more concerning"; however, the actual July non-farm payroll data "fell short of expectations," directly weakening the reference value of the minutes.
Danish investment bank analysts bluntly stated: the minutes are "somewhat outdated," and the market is not focused on "how we thought in the past," but rather on "how we act now."
2. Powell's speech this Friday will directly answer three key questions:
Rate cut in September: 25 basis points or 50 basis points?
Inflation tolerance: Is there acceptance of "slow inflation decline" to ease rate cuts?
Attitude towards the crypto market: Will there be a continuation of "regulatory wait-and-see" or the release of new signals?
For the crypto circle:
If "dovish signals" are released (support for rate cuts, tolerance for inflation), the dollar weakens → funds flow into the crypto market → BTC and ETH lead the rise;
If maintaining a "hawkish" stance (emphasizing inflation control first), the dollar strengthens → risk assets are pressured → crypto market adjusts.
3. Ordinary investors only need to focus on these three core signals to determine their positioning rhythm:
1. Rate cut statements
Bullish signal: "Inflation decline meets expectations, supports gradual rate cuts"
Bearish signal: "Inflation is stubborn, high rates need to be maintained"
2. Inflation judgments
Bullish signal: "Core inflation cooling trend is clear"
Bearish signal: "Rising energy prices elevate inflation risks"
3. Crypto regulation
Potential bullish: "Recognition of the financial innovation value of crypto assets"
Neutral / Bearish: Not mentioned or emphasizes "preventing crypto risks."
The Federal Reserve's "old minutes" can no longer stir up waves; Powell's "new speech" is the "switch" for the crypto market.
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