According to BlockBeats, on August 21, Glassnode's latest market analysis report indicates that Bitcoin's capital inflow is showing signs of fatigue. Even as the price reached a new high of $124,400, demand is still weakening. While this demand slowdown is occurring, speculative positions have surged, with the open contracts of major altcoins reaching a record high of $60 billion, before pulling back by $2.5 billion.
Ethereum, long seen as a barometer for 'altcoin season', has once again become a bellwether for this round of volatility. Its dominance in holdings has risen to the fourth highest level in history, while its dominance in perpetual contract trading volume has soared to a new high of 67%, marking the strongest structural shift to date.
From a cyclical perspective, Bitcoin's price movements echo previous patterns. In the cycles from 2015-2018 and 2018-2022, based on the cyclical lows, Bitcoin's peak prices were only 2-3 months later than our current levels. Moreover, long-term holders have realized profit levels comparable to those during past booming periods, reinforcing the impression that the market is in the late stage of the cycle.
Taken together, these signals highlight the historic markers of a mature market phase, such as rising leverage, profit-taking, and intensified speculative activity. However, each cycle has its own characteristics, and it remains uncertain whether Bitcoin and the broader market will follow a fixed timeline.
