In the current market, ETH is in a typical range-bound phase.
From a technical perspective, the short-term moving averages have formed a golden cross, and the price is running above the moving averages, which indeed releases a certain bullish signal. However, the problem lies in the extremely shrinking trading volume, leading to a divergence between price and volume, which poses a higher risk of false breakouts. In other words, even if the price spikes up, if there is no capital support, it may just be a "false alarm."
In terms of the external environment, the current market sentiment is neutral, and the Fear & Greed index does not show any significant extreme performance. On a macro level, U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index do not present new pressures or support, and the overall environment is relatively calm. The news front is a mix of positive and negative: for example, financing expansions and increased on-chain activity have added some support to the market; but at the same time, privacy controversies and the selling pressure from token unlocks have raised concerns about capital.
Overall, the current ETH market seems more like a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, temporarily lacking sufficient driving force to break the oscillation. In the short term, a bullish engulfing pattern has appeared around $2960, which may lead to a rebound, but whether it can establish a trend depends on whether the trading volume can truly increase.
For the upcoming trend, the key lies in two points: first, whether the market can bring effective volume when breaking out; second, whether external news will provide new catalysts. If neither of these occurs, the oscillation is likely to continue.
Strategy recommendation: Buy near 4130-4100, with a stop loss at 4050
