Prominent economist Kenneth Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard University, admitted to one of the most famous and controversial predictions about Bitcoin being wrong.
In a post on platform X (formerly Twitter), Rogoff returned to his 2018 statement in which he said that Bitcoin was 'much closer' to collapsing to $100 rather than reaching $10,000. Seven years later, with Bitcoin trading today at over $113,000 after touching a historic peak of $124,000, Rogoff admitted that his prediction was completely off the mark.
From $100 to $100,000
In March 2018, Rogoff viewed Bitcoin's future as bleak, considering it merely a tool for money laundering and tax evasion. At that time, the currency's price was declining from its previous peak of $20,000 to around $11,000, then later dropped to just over $3,000 by the end of the year. His predictions aligned with the prevailing view at the time that Bitcoin was just a bubble about to burst.
However, events took a different turn; the digital currency recovered strongly and reached record highs in several consecutive market cycles, reaching its current prices of over $100,000. This stark contradiction between expectation and reality brought Rogoff's statements back to the forefront on social media, serving as a vivid example of how difficult it is to predict Bitcoin's trajectory.
Where was the mistake?
Rogoff clarified that his biggest mistake was assuming that regulatory bodies in the United States would swiftly and decisively intervene to curb the spread of digital currencies. However, he described this belief as 'overly optimistic,' as the laws did not move as quickly as he expected.
He also pointed out that he did not envision Bitcoin evolving from a marginal payment network to an asset capable of attracting significant institutional investments and gaining some legitimacy within the global financial system. He acknowledged that he underestimated the conflicts of interest among regulators and their hesitation to impose strict restrictions on this sector.
The current scene
Despite all of the above, the future of Bitcoin remains an open topic for discussion. Veteran analyst Peter Brandt sees a possibility that the currency may have already peaked, especially after its recent decline to below $113,000 coinciding with drops in the Nasdaq index. In contrast, supporters still believe that the long-term trajectory of the currency leans toward higher values.
Rogoff's admission highlights a fundamental truth: even top economists and experts can be significantly wrong in predicting the course of Bitcoin. This currency continues to surprise everyone and forces both its supporters and opponents to reconsider their assumptions about its future.