Solana (SOL) recently struggled to surpass the $200 mark, failing to break through this resistance last week.
Despite the setback, a change in investor behavior, marked by maturing holdings and an increase in the number of long-term holders (LTHs), may provide the necessary support for recovery and future gains.
Solana investors are maturing
In the last 24 hours, the supply of Solana that remained inactive for 6 to 12 months increased by 5 million SOL, valued at over $905 million. This increase in supply indicates that a significant portion of the token holdings is maturing and moving towards long-term investments.
The maturation of these tokens may signal confidence in Solana's long-term outlook. As investors hold their positions for longer, it reduces the circulating supply and could lead to upward price pressure.
Solana Last Active Supply 6-12 Months. Source: Glassnode
The overall macro momentum for Solana shows signs of strain, as the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator currently points to a decline. The CMF, which tracks capital inflows and outflows, is below the zero line, suggesting that outflows are exceeding inflows.
As outflows continue to grow, selling pressure may intensify, impacting Solana's price in the short term. The presence of increasing skepticism among investors and the lack of significant buying pressure could limit SOL's ability to break critical resistance levels.
Solana CMF. Source: TradingView
SOL price may recover
At the time of this analysis, the price of Solana is at $180, remaining above the support level of $175. Given the current behavior of investors, the chances of a significant drop seem low for now. The price is well supported by the influx of maturing positions and ongoing investor interest.
If long-term investors maintain their resilience and resist the temptation to sell, Solana may recover the support level of $189. Successfully holding this level would allow the altcoin to approach the resistance of $201, a level it failed to break through twice in the last month. This could mark a potential turning point for Solana.
Solana Price Analysis. Source: TradingView
However, if selling pressure intensifies and the price falls below $175, Solana could drop to $163. Such a move would invalidate the bullish thesis, extending the recent decline and increasing downside risk for the cryptocurrency. The outcome heavily depends on investor sentiment and broader market conditions.
The article Can the $900 million Expiration Take Solana to $200? was first seen on BeInCrypto Brazil.
