What could be more fun than watching Bitcoin do flips in the arena of price fluctuations? Yesterday it joyfully jumped to $124,500, and then, as if remembering that gravity hasn't been canceled yet, it dove back down to $112,500. Some would call this 'volatility.'
Our favorite analyst is Willy Woo. A person who can look at on-chain charts the way we look at cat memes. And he says: 'Everything is fine. The MCR risk indicator is falling.'
For those who don't sleep with a calculator under their pillow:
MCR is the ratio of market capitalization to realized value.
Translating to human terms: if the chart is going down, it means there is less panic, holders are calmer, and liquidity is reviving again.
Sounds nice. Almost like 'tomorrow we will all be rich.'
Liquidations:
The only problem is that the market still resembles a casino. Speculators are playing with leverage, liquidations are wiping out their portfolios, and in the background, long-term investors are smiling and thinking: 'Aha, the guys decided to outsmart the market again. Well, well.'
If we believe Woo, right now we are at a stage where short-term traders are still being shaken out, while real HODLers are gathering liquidity and preparing for the next 'moon' rise.
In other words: while someone is shouting 'we're going down!', others are quietly accumulating and waiting for the crowd to jump back onto the train at inflated prices.
Conclusion
In the short term, we will see a lot more circus with liquidations.
In the long term, indicators show that the fundamentals are strengthening.
This means that the next act titled 'Bitcoin is heading to 200k' may begin a little earlier.
