Matrixport: Crypto stocks are losing momentum after an 18-month rally.
Analysts at #Matrixport compared the index of 13 crypto companies with the dynamics of #BTC over the past 18 months. The results were impressive until recently: the cumulative return of crypto stocks reached about +427%, while #BTC was around +117%. BUT corrections in #MSTR (#MicroStrategy), #COIN (#Coinbase), and #Metaplanet turned the index downward.
The authors of the report explain it this way:
- The 'first day' effect around #Circle (#CIRCLE, IPO) quickly fizzled out: demand for new listings turned out to be weaker than expected.
- Institutional activity looks subdued - there is typical summer seasonality plus a lack of new drivers.
As a result, analysts estimate that in the absence of high-profile IPOs/corporate catalysts, the sector may shift towards consolidation.
At the same time, over the long term, crypto stocks are still outperforming BTC, but recent weeks have shown that the correlation with #BTC works both ways: increasing uncertainty regarding the asset quickly hits the shares of infrastructure players.
The necessary triggers for restarting the rally are stabilization and growth of #BTC, new corporate stories reviving capital inflow into public crypto companies. Until such signals appear, the baseline scenario for the stocks of these companies is range-bound, along with cautious rotation within the sector.
